#CPIdata $BTC Impact of US CPI DATA (release 12:30 pm UTC) :

1. Scenario A – Bullish CPI Surprise (Lower-than-expected inflation)

Catalyst:

• CPI YoY < 3.4%

• Core CPI YoY < 3.7%

Market Reaction:

• DXY weakens, risk assets (BTC, equities) rally

• BTC breaks above key resistance near $83,000–$83,500

⸻

Trade Setup: Long (Buy BTC/USDT)

• Entry:

• Conservative: On breakout above $83,000

• Aggressive: Pullback to $81,200–$81,500 (support zone)

• Stop-Loss:

• Below EMA20 or breakout level: $79,500

• Take-Profit Targets:

• TP1: $84,800 (psychological and structural resistance)

• TP2: $86,000 (post-breakout rally potential)

• TP3 (swing): $88,000 (upper Bollinger extension if momentum sustains)

⸻

2. Scenario B – Bearish CPI Surprise (Higher-than-expected inflation)

Catalyst:

• CPI YoY > 3.4%

• Core CPI YoY > 3.7%

Market Reaction:

• DXY strengthens, equities sell off, BTC drops on rate hike fears

• BTC could reject $83K zone and fall below key support

⸻

Trade Setup: Short (Sell BTC/USDT)

• Entry:

• On rejection from $82,800–$83,200 zone

• OR breakdown below EMA20 ($79,667) with volume confirmation

• Stop-Loss:

• Above $83,800 (invalidates breakdown)

• Take-Profit Targets:

• TP1: $78,000 (recent consolidation support)

• TP2: $75,800 (24h low and Bollinger mid-zone)

• TP3 (deep drop): $74,000 (lower Bollinger band and swing low)