—— Decoding the short-term dividends and long-term risks of policy shifts.
1. Policy Turnaround: The dramatic shift from 'tariff nuclear bomb' to '90-day ceasefire.'
On April 9, 2025, U.S. President Trump announced on social media a 90-day suspension of 'reciprocal tariffs' on countries that had not implemented retaliatory tariffs and unified the existing reciprocal tariff rate to 10%. This decision was like a 'financial nuclear bomb,' instantly igniting global markets: the three major U.S. stock indices recorded historic gains, the Nasdaq soared 12.16% in a single day, Bitcoin broke through the $83,000 mark, and stock index futures in Asia-Pacific and Europe surged simultaneously. However, behind this policy shift is a life-and-death race of political and economic games—just two days prior, Trump threatened that if China did not cancel the 34% tariff, the U.S. would impose a 50% punitive tariff.
The core motivation for forcing Trump to 'back down' lies in threefold pressure:
1. Risk of Financial Market Collapse: From April 3 to 8, the S&P 500 index fell by 10.53%, the Nasdaq entered a technical bear market, losing $5.4 trillion in market value, and the U.S. bond market showed signs of panic selling.
2. Domestic Protest Wave: Over 500,000 people participated in 'Stop!' demonstrations across the U.S., protesting tariffs that raised living costs.
3. International Counterpressure: The EU, Japan, and other economies have formulated a countermeasure list totaling over $100 billion, while China announced a 34% tariff on U.S. goods and refused to compromise.
Although this policy 'face change' temporarily alleviates market anxiety, the 10% baseline tariff is still higher than the WTO framework rate, and tariffs in key areas such as China, steel, and automobiles remain exempted, meaning the essence of the trade war has not ended.
At the same time, this wave is also a preemptive ambush, a kind of policy dividend. Yesterday, we positioned ourselves early with a long position on Bitcoin, successfully capturing 7800 points, and Ethereum followed suit with a successful 280 points gain, resulting in a super huge profit after waking up.
2. Market Frenzy: Liquidity feast and the 'leverage trap' of risk assets.
Trump's policy shift injects a boost into global risk assets:
- Epic rebound in U.S. stocks: The Nasdaq recorded its largest single-day gain since 2001, Tesla surged 22.69%, Nvidia and Apple both rose over 15%, and the market capitalization of the seven tech giants increased by $1.85 trillion in a single day.
- Cryptocurrency Volatility: Bitcoin fell back to $78,500 after breaking above $83,000, the MEME coin sector saw an average increase of over 25% in 24 hours, and the liquidation amount in the futures market reached $730 million.
- Global Market Resonance: The Nikkei 225 index rose nearly 9% during the session, Eurozone Stoxx 50 futures rose over 9%, the offshore RMB appreciated 1.07%, and oil prices rebounded 5%.
However, behind the frenzy lies structural contradictions:
1. Inflation Stickiness Risk: The 10% baseline tariff may still push the U.S. core PCE price index up by 0.6-1.2 percentage points, constraining the Federal Reserve's room to cut interest rates.
2. Policy Arbitrage Game: The rebound of Bitcoin is more due to a recovery in risk appetite and leveraged capital rather than validation of its 'safe-haven property'—it plummeted to $74,508 on April 6 due to tariff escalation, with its correlation to the S&P 500 index rising to a historical peak of 0.78.
3. Mismatched Deadline Concerns: If a new agreement is not reached after the 90-day window, the market may face more severe sell-offs.
3. Pause ≠ End: The 'threefold script' of policy games.
Trump's expedient measures are essentially a complex balance of electoral politics, global power restructuring, and financial stability.
1. Resetting Electoral Chips
When campaigning for re-election in 2024, Trump promised to 'revitalize manufacturing through tariffs,' but current policies have caused a surge in factory costs in the rust belt. Pausing tariffs can temporarily appease voters while shifting the blame for economic recession onto 'uncooperative trading partners.'
2. Rule Reconstruction Experiment
The 10% 'minimum baseline tariff' is actually to force countries to accept the new trade rules. For instance, the EU must abandon the digital services tax, Vietnam must limit the supply chain transfer of Chinese companies, and Japan must expand agricultural import quotas.
3. Financial Stability Red Line
Federal Reserve data shows that corporate investment willingness has dropped to the lowest level since 2008 due to tariff uncertainty. Pausing tariffs provides financial institutions with a 90-day breather to adjust balance sheets in response to potential bond market crises.
4. Warning Signs: Five major unexploded bombs behind the frenzy.
Investors who are obsessed with short-term gains may overlook the following risks:
1. Policy Repetitiveness: Trump clearly stated that 'higher tariffs could be restored at any time,' and his decision-making style exacerbates market volatility.
2. Stagflation Ghost: JPMorgan predicts a 40% probability of U.S. economic recession, as high inflation coexists with low growth may trigger 'Trump Stagflation.'
3. Deepening Decoupling Between China and the U.S.: 54% of China's tariffs remain unchanged, and the risk of a broken technology supply chain threatens the semiconductor and new energy industries.
4. Regulatory Storm in the Cryptocurrency Market: The U.S. SEC may accelerate stablecoin legislation amid market fluctuations, targeting decentralized exchanges.
5. Liquidity Trap: Bitcoin ETF experienced a net outflow of $4.3 billion over five consecutive days, indicating institutional skepticism about the sustainability of the rebound.
5. Rational Examination: Investment strategies that navigate through cyclical volatility.
In the face of policy-driven market turbulence, investors need to build an antifragile portfolio:
- Stock Market: Focus on essential consumer goods (anti-inflation) + data centers (rigid demand for AI computing power).
- Cryptocurrency: Reduce leverage ratios, allocate Bitcoin spot + compliant stablecoins (like USDC);
- Bonds: Increase holdings of short-duration U.S. Treasury bonds to hedge against policy repetitiveness risk;
- Alternative Assets: Gold allocation increased to 10%, hedging against geopolitical black swans.
For ordinary investors, it is important to be wary of two types of cognitive traps:
1. Narrative Dependency Syndrome: Simplifying complex economics to 'tariff pause = bull market restart,' ignoring fundamental indicators like corporate profits.
2. FOMO (Fear of Missing Out): Blindly chasing high-volatility assets like MEME coins, ignoring that Bitcoin's correlation with U.S. stocks has reached a historical peak.
Conclusion: Reconstructing the value coordinate system amidst uncertainty.
Trump's 90-day pause order is both a crisis alleviation tool and a bargaining chip in the global power struggle. Behind the market frenzy, the collapse of the old order and the emergence of a new paradigm are colliding: the AI computing power revolution reshapes productivity, blockchain technology challenges traditional financial structures, while geopolitical conflicts and policy repetitiveness form the backdrop of volatility. Investors must transcend short-term noise and seek anchors in the three-dimensional coordinate system of macro cycles, industrial transformation, and asset valuation to maintain value in the eye of the storm.