My original plan was to sell $BTC in 2025 at $200K.
But price action, liquidity, and macro conditions changed and so did my outlook.
Here’s what I expect next for Bitcoin, and how I’m adjusting 🧵👇
1/x Let’s start with the key change:
#bitcoin is not weak, it’s consolidating.
We’re near a likely bottom around current levels, but don’t expect a sharp bounce. The correction is healthy, but price still needs time to chop and reset.
No panic. No euphoria. Just patience.
2/x Technically, Bitcoin remains bullish long-term.
We’re holding above the 50-week SMA (~$76.8K), the same level that supported price in summer 2024.
Higher highs and higher lows are intact.
• Previous top: $108K
• Current low: ~$75K
• Key support: 50W SMA
This is textbook bull market structure.
3/x Zooming in, short-term signals are flashing caution.
The death cross is nearing on the daily chart (50D crossing below 200D). Historically, this means:
• More chop
• 2–3 months of sideways price
• Then recovery (golden cross = breakout)
No need to catch the bottom. Let the structure reset.
4/x But this isn’t just about charts. Fundamentals matter more. We’re entering a liquidity air pocket that could last 2–6 months.
Why?
• April tax season = sell pressure
• US debt ceiling = TGA refill = liquidity drain
• QT still active = Fed hasn’t pivoted
• QE can’t start until rates hit 0%
• Recession odds = 61% by October
We’re not there yet.
5/x So how does liquidity return? Watch for stealth QE.
Arthur Hayes points to the Fed slowing QT, letting mortgage-backed securities roll off, and replacing them with Treasury purchases.
