BTC traders remain cautious, waiting for the trend change in U.S. stocks to boost investor optimism in cryptocurrencies.
U.S. stocks and the cryptocurrency market changed drastically on April 9 after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs, except for China.
The price of Bitcoin responded with a 5% increase in less than an hour, recovering the $83,000 level, which was last seen on April 6.
While the S&P 500 gained 8%, Bitcoin derivative metrics have not yet turned bullish as traders remain cautious about changes in U.S. long-term government bonds.
The premium on BTC futures briefly exceeded the neutral threshold of 5%, but failed to maintain its momentum. Investors were skeptical about whether the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates throughout the year. However, this indicator has moved away from the 3% level observed on March 31, signaling growing confidence among Bitcoin bulls after several failed attempts to push prices below $76,000.
The hesitation of traders can be attributed in part to the release on April 9 of the minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on March 18 and 19. The minutes highlighted concerns about stagflation. According to data from the CME FEDWatch tool, the probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates below 4% by September 17 fell from 97.6% on April 8 to 69.7% on April 9.
Traders are concerned about the implications of a weakened 10-year U.S. Treasury yield. This decline reflects diminished confidence in the government's ability to manage its growing debt. Economist Peter Boockvar, editor of The Boock Report, explained to Yahoo Finance: 'We can draw a line around the 4.40% level on the 10-year yield.' He added that investors fear that 'foreigners will continue to reduce their holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds.'
When bond yields rise, it indicates that buyers are demanding higher returns from the U.S. government. As a result, the cost of refinancing debt increases, potentially creating a negative cycle that weakens the U.S. dollar. This uncertainty in the macroeconomic environment has also been reflected in the Bitcoin options market.
On April 9, the funding rate for 30-day Bitcoin futures rose to 0.9%, its highest level in over six weeks. This increase likely reflects the entry of retail buyers into the market, but remains within the neutral range. This consistency in BTC derivative metrics suggests that the pause in tariffs was not enough to restore confidence, especially as tensions in the trade war with China persist.
It is unclear what will drive Bitcoin traders to take a bullish stance, but a reduction in macroeconomic uncertainty, such as a decrease in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, will likely play a critical role.
