#tarifas #EconomicAlert #EstrategiasDeComercio , $BTC , $USDC $BNB

Based on the current scenario (Interest rate hikes, Geopolitical tensions, uneven economic growth). Analyzing a period from (March to June 2025), considering the global scenario: Fiat currencies: risk x opportunity

Strong Currencies to Sell or Avoid Buying

1. US Dollar (USD): Although it is a safe haven, the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates, reducing its appeal. Risk of correction if inflation falls quickly.

2. Swiss Franc (CHF): Traditionally safe, but at historically high levels. Possible intervention for devaluation.

3. Japanese Yen (JPY): Artificially weakened by the Bank of Japan, but recent interventions may cause sharp reversals.

4. British Pound (GBP): UK economy in technical recession. Interest rate cuts by the Bank of England may weaken the currency.

Weak Currencies to Buy (with Recovery Potential)

1. Brazilian Real (BRL): High interest rates (Selic at 10.75%) and rising commodities attract capital. Risk: fiscal instability.

2. Mexican Peso (MXN): Benefited from nearshoring and attractive interest rates (11.25%). Risk: dependence on the US economy.

3. Australian Dollar (AUD): Commodities may recover with Chinese stimulus. Currency devalued after recent drops.

4. Turkish Lira (TRY): Extreme devaluation (~30% in 2023). High interest rates (40%) may attract speculators, but with high risk due to inflation (~50%).

General Risks to Monitor

- Interest Rates: Decisions from the FED and ECB can impact all currencies.

- Geopolitics: Wars (Ukraine, Middle East) increase demand for USD and CHF.

- China: Weak industrial data pressures AUD and BRL.

Suggested Strategy (Relationship between local currency and market)

- Weak Currencies: Buy in small batches and diversify (e.g., BRL + MXN).

- Strong Currencies: Use as a hedge in adverse scenarios.

- Stop-Loss: Set limits for losses (e.g., -5% in TRY, -3% in AUD).

Based on the presented scenario, here are some strategic recommendations that balance Fiat currencies and cryptocurrencies: remember it is not a certainty but can assist in your monetary choices...

##Fiat Currencies

1. Brazilian Real (BRL): Take advantage of high interest rates and the potential for appreciation with the approval of reforms. Ideal for diversification in emerging markets.

2. Mexican Peso (MXN): Benefit from growth driven by nearshoring and attractive interest rates.

3. Australian Dollar (AUD): Invest in commodities, especially if there are signs of economic recovery in China.

##Cryptocurrencies

1. Bitcoin (BTC): Continues to be a safe bet due to its growing institutional adoption and protection against inflation.

2. Ethereum (ETH): With smart contracts and constant updates, it is a solid choice for the long term.

3. Solana (SOL) and Polygon (MATIC): Good options for diversification, focusing on scalability and technological innovation.

4. Tokenized Asset Projects (RWA): Represent an emerging trend, connecting real-world assets to the blockchain.

##General Strategy

- Diversification: Combine Fiat currencies with cryptocurrencies to balance risk and return.

- Small Batches: Invest gradually in more volatile currencies, such as the Turkish Lira (TRY) or emerging cryptos.

- Constant Monitoring: Keep track of interest rate decisions and geopolitical tensions, which can impact both Fiat and crypto.

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