1. Market Status:
• Price Range: BTC has recently fluctuated between $66,000 - $71,000;
• Liquidity Characteristics: Multiple platform order books show weak liquidity, with a few large orders causing significant price swings;
• Macroeconomic Disturbances:
• Repeated expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts;
• Slow pace of ETF capital inflows and outflows, insufficient buying momentum;
• Halving effects have been prematurely priced in, with positive news already realized.
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2. Market Characteristics:
• Technical Analysis:
• Daily chart is consolidating between MA50 and MA100;
• RSI is at a neutral position (50-55), with no extreme overbought or oversold conditions;
• Trading volume continues to shrink, indicating strong wait-and-see sentiment from major players.
• On-chain/Derivatives:
• Open Interest (OI) is decreasing, indicating that long and short funds are temporarily exiting;
• Perpetual contract funding rates have turned positive multiple times, with bulls starting to weaken;
• The age indicator of holders shows no significant movement of long-term holders.
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3. Main Player Movements and Sentiment:
• Whale addresses are selling in batches, with no concentrated buying observed;
• Market sentiment indicators (such as the Fear and Greed Index) have fallen back to a neutral to fearful zone;
• The localized heat in the Solana and meme sectors is attracting some short-term funds, while BTC lacks independent market momentum.
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4. Short-term Strategy Recommendations (not investment advice):
1. Range-bound thinking: buy low and sell high between 66k~71k;
2. Light position building, waiting for directional choice;
3. Pay attention to movements in US stocks, the US dollar index, and ETF dynamics as reference for correlation;
