Now, both China and the United States have become adversarial. Trump wants China to back down, but China is being unyielding and directly retaliated without hesitation, raising tariffs twice to 84%. Moreover, China has warned its personnel going to the U.S. to be cautious of risks.
Trump has begun warning again that tariffs might increase to 200% or 300%, but it is basically of no use because the tariffs are already high enough. At this point, there is no difference between 100%, 200%, or 300% since none of them are profitable; in fact, it could lead to losses.
Therefore, the negative impact of tariffs has basically passed, and it now depends on how both sides resolve the situation. Negotiations should take place; otherwise, both sides will suffer.
Currently, the probability of a rate cut in May has risen to 54%, and in June, it is at 100%. I hope both sides can reach a conclusion soon and then take advantage of the favorable rate cut to surge to new highs.
