Combining the white paper released on April 9, 2025 (China's position paper on China-U.S. economic and trade relations) and recent tariff policy dynamics, the intensification of China-U.S. economic and trade frictions may have the following multi-dimensional impacts on the cryptocurrency market.

1. The 'double-edged sword' effect of market risk aversion and cryptocurrencies

  • Short-term panic selling: The white paper mentions that the U.S. has recently imposed 'reciprocal tariffs' and an additional 50% tariff on China and implemented 301 investigation restrictions on industries such as shipping and logistics, leading to increased global market volatility. If traditional markets like U.S. stocks and Hong Kong stocks continue to plummet, cryptocurrencies may also suffer (for instance, Bitcoin fell over 5% in a single day during the market panic in April 2024).

  • Long-term demand for hedging: If the China-U.S. tariff war triggers expectations of a prolonged economic recession, some capital may shift towards Bitcoin and other 'digital gold' as a hedge against risk. However, it should be noted that the current correlation between gold and cryptocurrencies as safe havens has weakened, with the market leaning more towards holding cash or stablecoins.

2. Potential tightening risks of policy regulation

  • Control of capital flows between China and the U.S.: The white paper emphasizes that China will take necessary countermeasures in response to U.S. tariffs, potentially strengthening foreign exchange controls to stabilize the RMB exchange rate. If capital outflow pressure increases, China's regulation on cross-border cryptocurrency transactions may tighten further (such as cracking down on OTC channels).

  • Threat of U.S. 'weaponization of finance': If the U.S. includes cryptocurrencies in its tariff sanction framework (such as restricting Chinese mining companies or exchanges), it may trigger a liquidity crisis in the cryptocurrency sector. For example, the U.S. has previously sanctioned DeFi protocols like Tornado Cash on the grounds of 'national security,' similar measures could be used in economic and trade disputes.

3. Impact on the supply chain and rising costs in the mining sector

  • Disruption of the mining machine supply chain: U.S. tariffs on Chinese semiconductor and logistics industries may increase mining machine production costs. If China's countermeasures involve restricting rare earth exports (key materials for chip manufacturing), global mining machine production capacity will be impacted, indirectly affecting Bitcoin's hash rate distribution.

  • Energy policy game: If China adjusts its energy export policies (such as restricting electricity supply) in its countermeasures, it may affect mining operational costs and push hash power to Central Asia and North America.

4. The narrative of de-dollarization and opportunities for cryptocurrencies

  • Internationalization of the RMB and stablecoins: The white paper calls for promoting a multilateral trading system, and China may accelerate the pilot of cross-border settlement using the digital RMB (e-CNY) to hedge against U.S. dollar hegemony. If more countries adopt digital currency for trade settlement, the demand for Bitcoin as a 'decentralized reserve asset' may rise.

  • Payment alternatives under geopolitical conflict: If the China-U.S. tariff war escalates into financial decoupling, companies may use cryptocurrencies to bypass traditional banking systems for cross-border payments, potentially leading to a surge in trading volume for stablecoins like USDT and USDC.

5. Speculative sentiment and market differentiation

  • Leverage liquidation risk: Recent lessons from over 240,000 global liquidations within 24 hours show that high-leverage contracts can easily trigger a chain reaction in the event of a policy black swan. If negotiations between China and the U.S. are protracted (such as around the effective date of tariffs on April 9), volatility in the cryptocurrency sector may exceed historical extremes.

  • Divergence between altcoins and mainstream coins: Funds may concentrate on mainstream coins like Bitcoin and Ethereum, while small-cap tokens face greater selling pressure due to insufficient liquidity. Attention should be paid to the policy adaptability of projects related to RWA (real-world asset tokenization) and cross-border payments.

Summary and strategy recommendations

  • Short-term strategy: Reduce high-leverage positions, prioritize holding stablecoins or low-volatility assets (such as Bitcoin spot), and pay attention to market sentiment changes before and after the tariff's effective date on April 9.

  • Long-term layout: Track the competition in blockchain technology between China and the United States (such as central bank digital currencies and compliant exchange licenses), and explore robust sectors (such as privacy coins and decentralized stablecoins).

  • Policy alert: If China introduces specific regulatory laws for cryptocurrencies, be cautious of the risk of exchanges being shut down; if the United States includes the cryptocurrency sector in its sanctions, assess the compliance costs for mining companies and DeFi protocols.

Risk warning: The China-U.S. game has high uncertainty, and the cryptocurrency sector needs to be wary of the 'policy-market' negative feedback loop. Investors are advised to dynamically adjust their positions in line with macro policies and on-chain data (such as net inflow to exchanges and miner holding indices).