"January: BTC drops below €100k

February: below €90k

March: below €80k

April: below €70k

According to you, what is the logical continuation?"

The question posed by @MrMeudiz MrMeudiz is as clear as it is striking. It highlights an apparently regular monthly drop of Bitcoin, observed in euros since the beginning of the year.

But before answering, let's start by factually checking if this reading corresponds to the reality of the market.

1. Verification of monthly claims

📌 Conclusion:

The reading of @MrMeudiz is perfectly aligned with market data. There is indeed an observed regular monthly drop of about -€10,000.

2. Is the next phase necessarily linear?

On paper, the projection seems logical:

→ May below €60k

→ June below €50k, etc.

But the crypto market does not obey a simple arithmetic logic. It operates in cyclical phases, influenced by:

○ The timing post-halving

○ Market emotions (fear, hope, euphoria)

○ Reactions to key technical zones

Our recent statistical study of previous cycles showed that the peak at $109k in January 2025 is likely too early to be a definitive ATH.

3. Two scenarios are now emerging

Scenario A: the correction continues linearly

If no support holds and fear sets in, the drop could indeed continue.

This is what this arithmetic sequence suggests.

Scenario B: the €65–70k zone plays a key role

If the market rebounds around these levels, we could enter a phase of consolidation/rebound.

This would be typical of a mid-cycle retracement, as observed in 2013 or 2020.

4. What to monitor now

The behavior around €65k: is this a support or just a step towards a deeper drop?

Volumes: the lower they are during the drop, the more likely a rebound.

Order books: signs of absorption or liquidity flight?

Conclusion:

The logical continuation is not necessarily what arithmetic suggests.

We may be at a turning point where the market will choose between:

A simple breath before a new peak,

Or a real transition to a bearish cycle.

In any case, the regularity observed by @MrMeudiz is valuable, as it prompts us to ask the right questions. And that is already a decisive step in the analysis.

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And now? Towards a deeper analysis...

This first response, although enlightening, only scratches the surface of the complexity of the subject.

Behind this regular sequence of declines lies perhaps much more than a simple alignment of numbers.

In a future article, we will explore:

○ The cyclical behavior of the market through historical data

○ The nature of intermediate retracements and their frequencies

And above all:

○ What does statistics tell us about the probabilities of recovery or collapse after such a regular drop?

See you soon for this complete update.

And thanks again to @MrMeudiz for inspiring this essential reflection!