One, key support and resistance
1. Support level
◦ Short-term strong support: $1400 (integer barrier and on-chain staking liquidation threshold); if broken, it may trigger programmed selling to $1350-1300.
◦ Extreme support: $1250-1300 (2022 low and whale accumulation signal zone); if lost, it may trigger a long-term bear market.
2. Resistance level
◦ Short-term resistance: $1450-1480 (psychological barrier and recent decline rebound pressure zone), must break through to alleviate selling pressure.
◦ Strong resistance: $1500-1550 (MACD death cross confirmation zone and staking cost line), it needs substantial spot buying to hold.
Two, technical indicator signals
1. Momentum indicators
◦ RSI: Currently in the 20-25 oversold range, but trading volume is low, rebound momentum is insufficient, requires BTC stabilization or macro positive push.
◦ MACD: Daily bearish momentum is increasing; if a bottom divergence appears on the 1-hour chart, it may trigger a short-term correction.
2. Market sentiment
◦ ETH/BTC exchange rate: Dropped to 0.0186 (new low since 2023), reflecting a preference for BTC as a safe haven, making independent rebounds for ETH difficult.
◦ On-chain data: Around $1400 is the staking liquidation threshold; if broken, it may trigger on-chain selling; whale address accumulation signals have not yet appeared.
Three, operational strategy
Bearish scenario (priority strategy)
• Trigger conditions: Price rebounds to the resistance zone of $1450-1480 and a stagnation signal appears on the 1-hour chart (e.g., long upper shadow or RSI overbought).
• Strategy:
◦ Short position entry: $1450-1480 range, stop loss above $1500, target $1400/1350.
◦ Breakthrough chasing: If it effectively breaks below $1400 with volume, can chase shorts to $1350-1300, stop loss at $1420.
Bullish scenario (high-risk strategy)
• Trigger conditions: Price reaches the support zone of $1250-1300 accompanied by significant on-chain whale accumulation or a long lower shadow on the 4-hour chart.
• Strategy:
◦ Light position attempt at long: around $1300, stop loss below $1200, target $1480-1550.
◦ Reversal signal: If it stabilizes above $1400 and the RSI exits the oversold zone (>30), it may attempt a short-term rebound.
Four, risk warnings
1. Macro events:
◦ U.S. CPI data (to be released on April 10) may strengthen interest rate cut expectations or exacerbate volatility;
◦ The SEC's approval results for the Ethereum spot ETF (discussion on April 11) may trigger a 20% level sharp decline.
2. On-chain risks:
◦ Staking liquidation pressure concentrated in the $1380-1400 range; if broken, it will accelerate downward;
◦ High net inflow to exchanges, short-term selling pressure has not yet been fully released.
Five, summary and observation points
Currently, Ethereum is in a bearish dominant phase, and the technical and sentiment indicators resonate downward; $1400 is the watershed for bulls and bears. It is recommended to prioritize short positions in the resistance zone with strict stop-loss; bottom-fishing requires waiting for clear reversal signals and operating with light positions. Key observation indicators include:
• Whether the 1-hour RSI has exited the oversold zone (>30);
• On-chain staking liquidation data and whale address movements;
• BTC linkage effect (if BTC falls below $75000, it will intensify ETH selling pressure).
Data source: Comprehensive from market technical analysis and on-chain monitoring tools
