In 2025, the U.S. Treasury faces up to $12 trillion in new bond issuance pressures, with $6.5 trillion maturing in June. If interest rates do not decrease and liquidity does not improve, U.S. finances will be walking on thin ice, even bordering on a technical default. Trump's calculations have already begun: by waging a trade war and creating global instability, he aims to trigger a flow of safe-haven funds back to the U.S., reabsorbing the global hot money, panic, and liquidity to **'extend the life' of the U.S. bond market**. This is not new – from the 2008 financial crisis to the liquidity surge during the 2020 pandemic, and now the heavy tariffs, the consistent pattern tells the world: the U.S. is 'globalizing' its debt problem and 'outsourcing' its inflation to all of humanity.
The new Cold War-style game has begun, and a global financial earthquake is imminent.
This time, the 104% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles is no ordinary trade friction, but a concrete starting point of Cold War-style economic confrontation. It has torn apart the global industrial chain and is reshaping the future financial order. What is likely to happen next is: China will launch a strong counterattack through the WTO or diplomatic means; many emerging market countries will erupt into a new round of financial crises due to capital outflows and currency depreciation; the global supply chain will be forced to reorganize, although Southeast Asia and Latin America may take on some industries, the pain will be severe; meanwhile, more and more countries will accelerate the **'de-dollarization'** process, establishing their own clearing systems and reserve systems to avoid systemic risks brought by dollar hegemony.
The cryptocurrency market is being trampled, but the future may belong to it.
At present, the cryptocurrency market is the first to be bloodied in this storm: prices have plummeted, emotions have collapsed, and on-chain liquidations continue. But we must also see that the decentralized value-bearing is precisely coming into its true existence against the backdrop of the collapse of the global trust system. When trust no longer belongs to the government, the financial system, and dollar hegemony, perhaps that’s the moment when crypto assets are redefined. There is no market that rises forever, nor is there an endless supply of victims; there is no eternally strong dollar, nor eternally suppressed innovation. **This is not the end, but a crack in the old order, the dawn of a new world.** We are all witnesses to this great change – those who endure will see a new order, a new world.
Just a humble opinion, if I say something wrong, please go easy on the criticism.
