Based on the current technical analysis (as of April 9, 2025), Bitcoin's current price around $77,000 shows a heightened struggle between bulls and bears. Below are key forecasts and strategies compiled from multiple expert analyses:
One, Key Support and Resistance Analysis
1. Support Levels
◦ Short-term Support: $76,500-$76,000 (recent lows and oversold zone critical point).
◦ Strong Support: $75,000 (psychological level and Fibonacci 50% retracement level); if it breaks, it may accelerate down to $73,000.
◦ Extreme Support: Bollinger Band lower limit of $75,000 and $70,000 (long-term moving average support).
2. Resistance Levels
◦ Short-term Resistance: $78,000-$78,500 (Bollinger Band middle track and EMA15 pressure).
◦ Strong Resistance: $80,000-$81,000 (high liquidity area and upper boundary of the descending channel); a breakout may reverse the short-term bearish trend.
Two, Technical Indicator Signals
1. Trend Indicators
◦ EMA: The larger EMA trend remains bearish, but prices are approaching an extreme oversold area, indicating a demand for a rebound.
◦ MACD: The daily level DIF and DEA have crossed below and continue to diverge downwards, but the four-hour chart shows signs of a volume contraction correction.
2. Momentum Indicators
◦ RSI: Currently in the neutral range of 40-50, not yet oversold, with limited short-term rebound momentum.
◦ Bollinger Bands: The daily chart has broken below the lower limit of $78,000; if it wants to return to the channel, it needs to stabilize above $78,500.
3. Trading Volume: Increased volume on declines, decreased volume on rebounds, reflecting insufficient market appetite for bottom fishing, with bears still in control.
Three, Market Forecast and Operational Strategy
Bearish Scenario (Probability 60%)
• Trigger Condition: If the price cannot stabilize above $78,000, or if the daily close falls below $76,500, it may further test down to $75,000-$73,000.
• Operational Suggestions:
◦ Short in batches at $78,500-$79,500, with a stop loss at $81,500 and a target of $76,500/$75,000.
◦ If it breaks below $76,000, it can be shorted, targeting down to $73,000.
Bullish Scenario (Probability 30%)
• Trigger Condition: If it stabilizes above $78,000 and breaks through the $80,000 resistance, it may rebound to $81,000-$83,000 with increased volume.
• Operational Suggestions:
◦ Aggressive traders can attempt long positions in the $76,000-$75,000 range with a stop loss at $73,500 and a target of $78,000-$80,000.
◦ After breaking $80,000, if it pulls back and confirms, additional positions can be added, targeting $83,000.
Neutral Consolidation (Probability 10%)
• Range: Consolidation within $76,500-$80,000, awaiting the halving event or clarification of macro policies.
Four, Risk Warning
1. Macro Factors: Changes in Fed interest rate cut expectations, geopolitical conflicts, and tariff policies (to be implemented before noon on April 9) may trigger significant volatility.
2. On-chain Data: Increased miner selling pressure and net inflows to exchanges, caution is required for short-term selling risks.
3. Stop Loss Discipline: Regardless of long or short positions, it is recommended to set a stop loss of 500-800 points to avoid significant losses due to extreme market conditions.
Summary
Currently, Bitcoin is at a critical long-short dividing line; the technical outlook is bearish but caution is needed for oversold rebounds. The short-term suggestion is to primarily focus on short positions, paying attention to the effectiveness of the $76,500 support; if it breaks, follow the trend to short; if a volume breakout occurs above $80,000, it can switch to a cautious bullish outlook. Investors need to adjust strategies flexibly based on real-time data and strictly manage risks.