Bitcoin showed a sharp recovery in the evening hours, drawing attention in the market. However, in the weekly market, price movements are at a critical point between a fluctuation range and a downward trend. In this analysis, we evaluate possible scenarios by examining Bitcoin's weekly technical indicators. We recommend a patient observation to avoid overly pessimistic approaches. Below, we provide a summary through moving averages, Bollinger Bands, volume-energy indicators, momentum indicators, and balanced market analyses.
1. Death Cross in Moving Averages and MA30 Trend
In the weekly market, following last week's rises and falls, Bitcoin is approaching the BBI (Bollinger Band Indicator) death cross and MA30 (30-day moving average) trend. If the death cross occurs this week, the likelihood of a definitive downward trend during March may increase. A renewed downward movement in the daily trend could resonate with the weekly cycle, initiating a more pronounced downward movement. According to data from TradingView, the death cross occurs when the short-term moving average crosses below the long-term average and is often interpreted as a precursor to a bear market (TradingView, 2025).
2. Testing the Lower Limit of Bollinger Bands
In terms of Bollinger Bands, the Bitcoin price has retreated to the weekly Bollinger lower band along with the collapse in the daily chart. This situation indicates that the cyclical trend may arrive earlier than expected. If a negative (bearish) closing occurs this week, the weekly downward trend may be triggered. Bollinger Bands are a tool used to measure price volatility, and touching the lower band generally indicates an oversold region (Investopedia, 2025). Therefore, the direction of the closing this week is of critical importance.
3. Uncertainty in Volume and Energy Indicators
The VR (Volume Rate) indicator in March reflects the transfer movement. After this transaction is completed, it will become clear whether it is distribution in the market or a trap. However, the transfer process has not yet been completed this week, which increases the likelihood of the trend continuing downward. The OBV (On-Balance Volume) indicator has made a new low, but no divergence has yet formed, and the OBV's moving average has not turned down. This indicates that the overall trend has not yet fully formed. If consecutive negative days occur, a real collapse may be imminent. According to Glassnode's latest analysis, the decline in OBV confirms that momentum is weakening, but more data is needed for a definitive bearish trend (Glassnode, 2025).
4. Downward Resonance in Momentum Indicators
RSI (Relative Strength Index) and MFI (Money Flow Index) are exhibiting a downward resonance. If consecutive bearish days occur, this resonance may fully form. CCI (Commodity Channel Index) needs to test the zero axis, which strengthens the likelihood of a decline. An RSI falling below 30 is considered an oversold signal, while a CCI dropping below zero may indicate increasing selling pressure (Investopedia, 2025). Current data implies that the likelihood of a decline is more dominant than an increase.
5. Balanced Market and the Need for Patience
The balanced market analysis indicates that a direct collapse is not expected in the weekly chart over the next two weeks. However, weekly bearish (negative) closings are needed to clarify the downward trend. In this case, the end of the Ichimoku Cloud may rotate and pull the price towards the cloud. When the time node is reached, the likelihood of the price hitting the cloud increases. Therefore, a patient approach should be adopted when evaluating the weekly chart. According to LiteFinance, tools like the Ichimoku Cloud are effective guides for understanding long-term trends (LiteFinance, 2025).
Summary and Strategy
Bitcoin's weekly market is currently standing on a delicate balance between a consolidation range and a downward trend. Three consecutive bearish candles are required for the downward trend to begin. Therefore, it will take time for the main trend to clarify, and overly pessimistic approaches should be avoided. As a short-term trading strategy, the resistance level of 81,500/1,635 can be referenced for selling positions. The market will show its direction more clearly in the coming weeks.
Conclusion
Bitcoin's current position carries both opportunities and risks. Although technical indicators signal a downward direction, more time is needed for a definitive trend formation. Investors should adopt a patient and cautious approach, closely monitoring the market.
Note: The information contained in this article is never investment advice but is intended for accurate and up-to-date informational purposes. STAY AWAY FROM SPECULATION FOR REAL, SCIENTIFIC ARTICLES❗️ Be sure to do your own research❗️
