Recent U.S. tariff measures have multidimensional impacts on the global economy, trade patterns, supply chains, and geopolitics, with specific effects analyzed as follows:

I. Systemic crisis facing the global trading system

1. Significant shrinkage in trade volume

The U.S. has imposed tariffs on multiple countries (such as a 50% tariff on some Chinese goods, 46% on Vietnam, and 20% on the EU), leading to a surge in global trade costs. The World Bank predicts that global trade growth could plummet from an expected 3.2% to -1.8% in 2025, potentially facing negative growth. This tariff level (averaging 30%) has exceeded the 40% rate from 1930 (Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act), which could trigger a trade collapse similar to the Great Depression (when global trade volume plummeted by 66%).

- Case study: The end price of Chinese goods exported to the U.S. has doubled, leading to inventory build-up for American retailers and a shrinking consumer market; Vietnam's electronics and textile industries face a 30% capacity relocation due to a 46% tariff, with Samsung and Intel canceling local investment plans.

2. Breakdown of the multilateral trading system

The United States' unilateral tariffs bypass WTO rules, leading to paralysis of global trade dispute resolution mechanisms (dispute resolution periods extended to over 2 years), pushing trade rules towards 'power dominance' and regionalization. The importance of regional agreements like RCEP and the North American Free Trade Area is rising, with RCEP trade volume growing by 19% in Q1 2025, while negotiations under the WTO framework are stagnant.

II. Global economy falling into stagnation and recession risks

1. Imported inflation intensifies

American consumers spend thousands of dollars more annually due to tariffs, with the CPI possibly returning to over 8% in 2025. Inflation spills over to the global economy through commodity pricing and supply chain costs. For example, if China restricts rare earth exports, it will raise costs for global electric vehicle and military industries; the price of imported cars in the U.S. has risen by 124%, while clothing and furniture costs have increased by 20%-35%.

- Emerging markets under pressure: Facing currency depreciation due to dollar repatriation (Vietnamese dong and Thai baht depreciated over 8%) and shrinking foreign exchange reserves (expected to decrease by 15%-20%), a Sri Lanka-style debt crisis may re-emerge.

2. Significant downward revision of economic growth

Institutions such as JPMorgan and the IMF predict that U.S. GDP may decrease by 0.1%-0.3% (losses of $28 billion to $83 billion), with global GDP growth slowing to 1.2%, and the probability of a U.S. economic recession reaching 60%. U.S. stock markets lost $5 trillion to $6 trillion in value within two weeks following the announcement of tariffs, and corporate debt default rates and mortgage delinquency risks have surged.

III. Accelerated restructuring and fragmentation of global supply chains

1. Companies are forced to 'take sides' and regional agglomeration

Multinational companies are accelerating the shift of supply chains from China to Southeast Asia, Mexico, and India to avoid tariffs, but they face cost disparities (with U.S. workers earning about $5,000 a month compared to about $700 for Chinese workers) and infrastructure bottlenecks (logistics costs in Mexico are 18% higher than in China), making it difficult to complete the transition in the short term.

- Regionalization trend: A 'dual circulation' supply chain system is forming, centered around RCEP (China-led) and the North American Free Trade Area (U.S.-led), while the EU is also promoting domestic industrial chain reconstruction, exacerbating global economic fragmentation.

2. Key industries face supply disruption risks

The U.S. relies completely on China for 256 products (such as rare earths and electronic components), and tariffs have posed supply disruption threats to strategic industries like renewable energy and semiconductors; China has imposed export controls on dysprosium and terbium, directly impacting global electric vehicle and military industrial chains.