#TrumpTariffs

President Trump has threatened to impose International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China related to fentanyl; national security tariffs on autos, auto parts, steel, and aluminum from all countries; and IEEPA tariffs on all countries related to an economic national emergency.

The average tariff rate on all imports will rise from 2.5 percent in 2024 to 16.5 percent—the highest average rate since 1937—under the Trump tariffs announced for 2025. Tariffs will cause imports to fall by slightly more than $800 billion in 2025, or 25 percent.

The newly announced universal Trump tariffs on April 2 will raise $1.5 trillion in revenue over the next decade and shrink US GDP by 0.4 percent. The April 2 escalation comes in addition to previously announced tariffs, which will raise $1.3 in revenue over the next decade and shrink US GDP by 0.3 percent. Altogether, Trump’s tariffs will raise nearly $2.9 trillion in revenue over the next decade and reduce US GDP by 0.7 percent, all before foreign retaliation.

The Trump tariffs will reduce after-tax income by an average of 1.9 percent and amount to an average tax increase of more than $1,900 per US household in 2025.

As of April 4, China, Canada, and the European Union have announced or imposed retaliatory tariffs altogether affecting $330 billion of US exports. Imposed and threatened retaliation as of April 4 will reduce US GDP by another 0.1 percent.

In 2025, the Trump tariffs will increase federal tax revenues by $258.4 billion, or 0.85 percent of GDP, making the tariffs the largest tax hike since 1982. The 2025 Trump tariffs are larger than the tax increases enacted under Presidents George H.W. Bush, Bill Clinton, and Barack Obama.

The first Trump administration-imposed tariffs on thousands of products valued at approximately $380 billion in 2018 and 2019. The second Trump administration tariffs now affect all United States imports excluding USMCA trade and certain energy-related imports, or more than $2.5 trillion of US imports.