1. Real-time market and core data
- Latest quote: BTC is currently quoted at $79,000, showing fierce battles between long and short.
- Technical indicators:
- Moving average system daily K: MA5 (80880) > MA13 (82800) > MA33 (83500) > MA55 (87,000),
Price is below MA5, short-term bearish trend is clear, but MA33/MA55 forms strong resistance.
2. Analysis of key support and resistance levels
Strong support | $74,000 | Previous low dense area + Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level (around 74,561), if it breaks down with volume, it may trigger panic selling.
Secondary support | $76,000 Short-term rebound key point.
Core resistance | $80,800 | Intraday high point
If it breaks $81,243, it may test $83,000
3. Long and short forces and driving factors
1. Bearish dominance logic:
Technical aspect: Bearish arrangement of moving averages + MACD death cross, daily trend has not reversed.
Capital aspect: Grayscale Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $180 million in one day, while net inflow to exchanges remains high (21,000 coins/day), selling pressure has not been fully released.
Macroeconomic aspect: Trump's tariff policy has raised inflation concerns, and expectations for Fed interest rate cuts have plummeted (June probability dropped from 72% to 42%), suppressing risk assets.
2. Potential bullish momentum:
- Oversold rebound: RSI is close to the oversold zone (32), panic index 23, market sentiment is extremely pessimistic, there is a demand for technical recovery.
- On-chain signal: Whales' addresses have net increased by 4,200 BTC in one day, miner selling pressure eased (hashrate rebounded to 375 EH/s), which may indicate the bottom is near.
👉 Short position: Enter at $80,700, stop loss at $81,300, target $78,000-$75,000
What you see is 'the current price',
🌄 What we see is 'the scenery of the future.'
SCDO——Technical consensus of the technical faction, choice of the value faction.
📊 Bottom consolidation, the ecosystem is moving towards prosperity! #持有SCDO未来星辰大海
