The big pie is facing a major turning point, with a bottom in sight at $75,000. Currently, the trade situation is tense, with Trump making strong statements that if China does not cancel the 34% tariff, a 50% tariff will be imposed on the 9th.

If both sides are determined to push back, it is highly likely that they will first adopt measures to lower reserve requirements and interest rates, and then it will depend on who can come up with more policy tools. The final negotiations after the circuit breaker on the 10th may become a turning point where negatives have been exhausted, and the bottom is very likely to appear.

In addition, the probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in May has risen to 50%, with the latest market bets suggesting there will be five rate cuts this year. Given this situation, if the Nasdaq experiences two more drops of over 5%, it is not impossible for the Fed to urgently cut rates in May, and the initial cut could reach 50 basis points.

Based on historical experience, in the few trading days following a significant drop, the market often rises to correct the deviation.