In recent years, the global economic landscape has undergone profound changes, and tariffs, as tools of competition between nations, reveal the trend of dollar hegemony's decline and Bitcoin's potential as a new hegemonic candidate.
1️⃣ The essence of tariffs is to control trade, and dollar hegemony relies on its status as the international trade settlement currency. Since the disintegration of the Bretton Woods system, the dollar has firmly bound global trade through petrodollars and the SWIFT system. However, high tariff barriers, such as the tariffs imposed in the U.S.-China trade war, are weakening this system. Countries are beginning to explore alternatives to avoid dollar settlement costs and sanction risks.
2️⃣ Taking China as an example, in response to U.S. tariff pressures, China is accelerating the internationalization of the yuan and promoting yuan settlement in countries along the Belt and Road. Russia has been forced to shift to ruble and gold transactions due to sanctions. These cases indicate that the tariff war has not only divided the trade landscape but also shaken the dollar's position as the sole choice. Countries are beginning to realize that the dollar is no longer irreplaceable.
3️⃣ However, alternative currencies like the yuan and ruble are still limited by national sovereignty and geopolitical factors, making it difficult to truly challenge the dollar's global reserve status. At this time, Bitcoin's decentralized nature begins to show its advantages. The trade friction caused by tariffs drives businesses and individuals to seek ways to bypass the traditional financial system, and Bitcoin fills this need without relying on any central bank.
4️⃣ Specifically, the use of Bitcoin in cross-border payments is growing. Suppose the U.S. imposes a 25% tariff on goods from a certain country; exporters from that country may face high costs and exchange rate risks with dollar settlements. However, paying with Bitcoin incurs low transaction costs, is fast, and is not controlled by SWIFT or the Federal Reserve. This effect of tariff evasion is driving actual use cases for Bitcoin.
5️⃣ Data also supports this. In 2024, Bitcoin trading volume is surging in emerging markets, especially in countries affected by high tariffs or sanctions, such as Turkey and Argentina. The phenomenon of businesses and even individuals circumventing the dollar system through cryptocurrencies is becoming increasingly common. This is not coincidental but an inevitable result of tariff barriers: when traditional currencies are weaponized, borderless and unregulated Bitcoin becomes a safe haven.
6️⃣ The foundation of dollar hegemony is trust, and the tariff war has accelerated the erosion of this trust. The U.S. is forcing allies to take sides through tariffs, but it has also led more countries to question the reliability of the dollar. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's fixed supply and anti-inflation properties make it increasingly seen as digital gold and could even become a future standard for value storage.
7️⃣ Of course, Bitcoin hegemony was not achieved overnight. Its volatility, technical barriers, and regulatory uncertainty remain obstacles. However, from the perspective of tariffs, the cracks in dollar hegemony are now irreversible, and Bitcoin is quietly growing within these cracks. Every increase in tariffs is a shock to the dollar system and a validation of Bitcoin's decentralized philosophy.
8️⃣ In summary, tariffs are not only weapons of trade wars but also catalysts for the reshaping of the global monetary landscape. The dollar has lost its luster due to its abuse, while Bitcoin has emerged due to its independence. We may be witnessing the end of one era and the beginning of another, from dollar hegemony to Bitcoin hegemony.
Most importantly, written at the end: Stay optimistic, don't be afraid. This is a long technical adjustment. Time will prove everything; it will all come back, but only for mainstream cryptocurrencies like $SOL and $SUI.
