The biggest misconception this entire season has been the 4-year cycle.
Promising people the easiest way that literally everyone gets rich by just buying before the halving and selling after.
Something that eternally works?
Listen up, I'm a HEAVY believer in the future of this industry. As such I'm always a long term bull (don't confuse this with always being bullish short term).
But to promise people the easiest trick in the book so that 99% can win by just buying and selling every 2 years was never going to hold up forever.
The first 2 times it worked because there was no consensus yet and because it was exactly the first few times.
This totally doesn't mean that it's over and hopeless. Irrelevant to the entire 4 year cycle the future holds promise.
But it was never going to eternally move by the easiest trick in the book (the halving).
Do you know I've literally met people in real that recommended others to wait a bit with buying but to do it exactly before the halving and then sell a short bit after?
The market will mature and move on external factors.
Macro being one of them yes. Along with liquidity injections like QE and with overall adoption (additional use cases).
Crypto isn't early in terms of recognition anymore. But it's still extremely early as an industry itself.
Make your analysis on other factors but please don't do it based on the 4 year cycle as that's what has gotten many people including me rekt.