Bitcoin Market Analysis and Trading Strategy

1. Current Market Background

- Technical Support: BTC retraced to around 74,000 yesterday, forming a key support level. The market generally views this as the bull-bear boundary. If it breaks down, it may trigger a deeper adjustment; conversely, it may continue the upward trend.

- Market Sentiment: After a short-term panic sentiment release, BTC rebounded to 79,000, showing that the bulls still have strong support.

- Correlation with U.S. Stocks: Recently, the cryptocurrency market's movements have been highly correlated with U.S. stocks (especially tech stocks). If U.S. stocks (like Nasdaq) rebound tonight, BTC might follow suit.

2. Key Levels

- Support Levels:

- 74,000 (previous high support, bull-bear boundary)

- 75,200 (short-term stop-loss reference)

- Resistance Levels:

- 81,000 (recent high point)

- 82,950 (target take-profit level, close to previous high pressure zone)

3. Trading Strategy

- Entry Range: 79,000-79,200

- Leverage: 10x (isolated margin mode)

- Position: 2-layer position

- Take Profit: 82,950

- Stop Loss: 75,238

1. Key Support is Valid: 74,000 not broken, market remains in a bull market structure, with a higher probability of a short-term rebound.

2. Reasonable Risk-Reward Ratio: Target profit 5%, stop loss 5%, risk-reward ratio 1:1, aligns with short-term trading logic.

3. Isolated Margin Mode: Controls single trade risk, avoiding total account liquidation.

⚠️ Risk Points:

1. Uncertainty in U.S. Stock Trends: If U.S. stocks do not rebound tonight (e.g., non-farm data exceeding expectations), BTC may face pressure.

2. High Leverage: 10x leverage can easily trigger stop losses in a volatile market, suggest monitoring the defensive strength around 75,200.

3. Short-term Overbought Potential: If it quickly rises to 81,000 and encounters resistance, it may pull back to 78,000 support.

- Conservative Strategy: If concerned about sudden spikes, wait for the 78,000-78,500 range to enter, lowering the stop loss to 74,500.

- Partial Take Profit: Reduce half of the position at 81,000, keep the remaining position targeting 82,950 to lock in some profits.

- Alternative Plan: If it breaks below 75,200, observe whether a head-and-shoulders structure forms before deciding whether to short.