$BTC

The current Bitcoin market presents a complex pattern, influenced by both fundamentals and technicals. From a macro perspective, the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike cycle is nearing its end, combined with geopolitical risks and resilient inflation, which may lead to a repricing of Bitcoin's hedge attributes as 'digital gold.' On the technical side, after completing the fourth halving in April, miner selling pressure has decreased, but the overall network has continued to reach new highs in hash rate, reflecting long-term bullish expectations. On-chain data shows that exchange reserves have dropped to a five-year low, indicating clear signs of chip accumulation. In the short term, we need to be wary of the transmission of fluctuations from U.S. tech stocks and changes in regulatory policies. In the medium term, the inflow of spot ETF funds and institutional allocation demand remain core variables. Prices are fluctuating in the $78,000 range, and a breakout requires support from macro liquidity. It is recommended to control leverage and pay attention to weekly support levels.