Personal opinion from Nothing Research Partner 0xTodd, aimed at sharing and communication, not constituting any investment advice:
I think today (April 7, 2025) feels very similar to January 5, 2022.
Bitcoin's sequence:
(1) Reached the second new high of this round;
(2) Struggled for 1 month at MA 200, then lost support and began to turn down;
(3) MA 100 and MA 200 are about to death cross.
A very bad situation.
Headache.
2022
Today
I am still half in Bitcoin + half in stablecoins for investment + a few new altcoins, not much has changed.
Hope the boat carving to seek a sword fails.
Not financial advice.
If based on this (carving study) result, right now it’s similar to January 2022.
Do you remember what everyone was trading back then?
That's right, everyone started trading blue-chip NFTs, Punk reached a new high, and then the monkeys and Azuki began to rise.
I call the narrative of this stage the "retirement narrative."
People who made money in the bull market start trying to invest the fruits of the bull market into "social consumption."
No avatar worth hundreds of thousands of RMB better represents that this person has profited greatly in the bull market.
Of course, we also remember the ending. Those who bought blue-chip NFTs at the last moment are still at the peak, which means that even at the end, the market did not forget to cut everyone once more.
PS: My red toad avatar is actually an NFT called CrypToadz. I really liked it at first sight because my previous ID was Crypto Todd, so I spent a fortune of 3 ETH to buy it, but now it has a floor price of 0.3 ETH.
I saw on Twitter these days (sorry, I forgot who mentioned it first), that this HK summit is:
"The first cycle of young people and the last cycle of OGs."
This statement has gained wide recognition, and I think it’s very likely that the "retirement narrative" will start again.
Including the dinner with Mr. Li, which surprisingly had a high OG content, also coincides with this trend.
However, at present, I have not seen any assets like NFTs that can serve as social status symbols.
Assets that align with the retirement narrative must be of the following types:
1. Expensive and impractical
2. Capable of appreciating
Do family members have any good ideas?