1. Overview of Trends & Wyckoff Analysis (Distribution - Downtrend Cycle)
Phase A: Climax - AR
• Most recent peak zone: 618-732 USDT → Distribution signal appears, price and volume divergence.
• Then there is Automatic Reaction (AR) → price drops significantly, confirming the distribution peak zone formed.
Phase B: Sideway Distribution
• Sideway lasted 3 weeks around the 590-618 USDT zone.
• Volume is decreasing → large funds are withdrawing from the market.
Phase C: UTAD (Upthrust After Distribution)
• Price has dropped significantly after the last fake bullish candle.
• Confirm structure breakdown (Break of Structure - BoS) at 590-580 → confirms strong downtrend.
Phase D: Markdown - Strong Decline
• Currently: the price is in the Markdown phase, breaking the strong support zone 540-530.
• Current short-term bottom zone: 520 USDT (unclear if it can hold).
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2. Analysis According to Supply-Demand & Price Action
Supply Zone (Resistance)
• 580-600 USDT: Strong distribution zone, many rejections at this price.
• If the price retraces to this zone → potential short or take profit for DCA orders below.
Demand Zone (Support)
• 500-520 USDT: This is a strong support zone previously (was the bottom in February).
• If it breaks the 520 zone, the likelihood of testing 480-500 again is very high.
Price Action
• Large red engulfing candle (Bearish Engulfing), volume spikes → confirms panic sell.
• There is a short-term Bounce signal at 520, but this is a technical retracement, not a reversal.
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3. On-Chain Data and Volume
• Volume spiked significantly (up to nearly 415M USDT) during the decline → confirms panic and stop-loss.
• 24h volume is very high: 692,000 BNB traded → distribution signal.
• Order trading: still about 60-70% leaning towards buying → meaning retail traders are still bottom-fishing.
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4. Conclusion & Recommendation for Entry $BNB
For DCA Investors (Medium to Long-Term):
• Should not DCA heavily at this time.
• Should wait for a Spring signal or retest the 500-520 zone and hold firm → gradually enter DCA from the 500-480 zone is optimal.
• If you want to enter a portion: 25-30% DCA capital at 520-530, hold most in lower zones.
For Short-Term Traders:
• Should not Long at this time, unless there is a confirmation signal of a reversal with a large volume bullish candle and confirms SPRING (fake breakdown then strong rebound).
• If the price retraces to the 560-580 zone, it can be Shorted with SL above 590.
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5. Highest Probability of Successful Trade $BNB
• Entry Long DCA: 500-520 (25-30% capital) → SL below 480.
• Entry Short (Trader): 560-580 → TP zone 520-500.