As predicted, a weekend shakeout unfolds. Bitcoin dominance rises. Altcoins like XRP and Cardano face accelerated decline in sync with U.S. equity markets.
Flashpoint in the Making
On Friday, April 4th, 2025, amidst a bullish cryptocurrency rally, I published an article signaling a sharp divergence in macro indicators. While digital assets continued their short-term ascent, the S&P 500 Index showed an alarming 5.97% correction, closing at 5,074.09—a decline of 322 points in a single session. At that very moment, I warned that this would not be an isolated event and that crypto, despite its weekend insulation from traditional markets, was on the brink of a sharp correction mirroring the macro picture. This week, that projection has come true with uncanny accuracy.
This is not mere hindsight validation; this is a moment of recognition that technical analysis, macro forecasting, and disciplined observation can often outperform the euphoria-driven noise that dominates financial markets.
1. The S&P 500 Index: Leading the Risk-Off Sentiment
The S&P 500 peaked on April 1st, 2025 at 5,866.36 and has since entered a decisive downward channel. The projected target of 4,291.06 by October 1st reflects a 15.3% decline over six months—a significant macro correction. This isn’t just technical: it's systemic. Investors are rotating out of risk assets due to rising interest rates, bond market volatility, and global uncertainty stemming from escalating geopolitical tensions and supply chain fragilities.
Support zones at 4,500 and 4,250 will be key. If the latter breaks, it opens the path toward recessionary lows. This correction also underscores the broader realization that the ‘soft landing’ narrative has lost credibility. The S&P 500 is no longer a safe haven—it’s a leading risk barometer.
2. XRP/USD: A Blow-Off Top with a Steep Retracement in Sight
XRP recently printed a towering candle formation near the $3.50 mark, only to see a dramatic reversal to $1.70—a 64% drop in a single monthly candle. This is not random price movement. It’s a psychological capitulation, marked by overbought RSI levels, parabolic exhaustion, and profit-taking cascades.
The $1.50 level might provide a brief pause, but technical confluence (Fibonacci 0.786 retracement, previous resistance-turned-support, and the rising trendline from mid-2023) now aligns around $0.65. This is our realistic short-term downside target.
If this plays out, XRP will re-enter the 2022–2023 accumulation range, offering long-term investors a potential re-entry point but posing high risk for short-term holders.
3. Cardano (ADA): The Structure Break Confirmed
Cardano’s recent fall from $0.70 to $0.5287 (-34%) has cracked its ascending triangle structure. Monthly momentum indicators, especially MACD and RSI, are reversing from neutral-bullish to bearish territory. What’s critical is that ADA has lost its 50-month moving average for the first time since its 2020 run-up.
The measured move from the triangle breakdown points to the $0.36–$0.25 range. Notably, the $0.36 level was the June 2023 bottom and holds historical significance. A break below this would signal structural damage and delay any altseason by months.
For Cardano, fundamentals matter—but in a macro-led market, price action trumps philosophy.
4. Bitcoin Dominance: The Risk-Off Rebalancer
As altcoins plunge, Bitcoin’s market dominance has surged from 60% to 64%, and could push toward 70% in Q2. This is a hallmark of every bear phase. As liquidity exits high-beta altcoins, it consolidates in BTC due to its relative perceived safety.
With rising BTC.D, the Altcoin/BTC pair ratios are expected to weaken significantly. Ethereum dominance will also suffer, as it often underperforms Bitcoin in deflationary trends. The lesson? When the tide goes out, only BTC remains partially clothed.
5. Altcoins: A Sea of Red and a Pause in the Innovation Trade
From Solana (-30%) to Avalanche (-28%) and Polkadot (-32%), altcoins are facing what appears to be a generational reality check. The innovation trade is on pause. Layer-1 narratives, DeFi expansions, and staking incentives have all proven vulnerable to macro tightening.
The correlation with NASDAQ stocks, especially high-beta tech, has never been stronger. This signals that despite the decentralized premise, altcoins are very much embedded in the broader financial web.
Prepare for multi-quarter underperformance unless Fed liquidity metrics turn positive.
6. Macro Forces: The Winds Have Shifted
This isn't just about crypto. The entire macro landscape has pivoted. The 10-year yield sits above 4.7%, inflation expectations are sticky, and the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet continues to tighten. Meanwhile, geopolitical rifts between major economies are increasing. Supply shocks, oil price volatility, and trade imbalances are roiling investor confidence.
In such an environment, leverage unwinds. Risk premiums rise. Assets from tech stocks to digital currencies fall. We are entering the defensive phase of the macro cycle.
7. Raoul Pal’s Warning: The Movie Has Begun
Raoul Pal once framed the unfolding macro in cinematic terms: “The movie is about to begin on the big screen.” Most took that as bullish foreshadowing. But the reality is different. The lights have dimmed, the music is ominous, and the credits are rolling in red.
The current cycle bears all the hallmarks of the 2018 bear market—only with more global complexity and higher capital exposure. For those who thought crypto was immune to macro, this is your awakening.
8. The Road Ahead: Strategic Preparation Over Speculation
My projections remain:
XRP heading to $0.65
ADA likely to touch $0.36–$0.25
Bitcoin dominance to reach 70%
S&P 500 to correct to 4,250 by October 2025
Altcoin bear cycle to last until at least ending 2025 to mid-2026
In this landscape, investors must prioritize capital preservation. Holders should consider defensive allocation strategies, de-risking portfolios, and staying attentive to macro shifts.
We are entering a phase of consolidation, not euphoria.
Conclusion: This Is the Time to Learn, Not Chase
The weekend correction was not an anomaly. It was a preview. The real story is what unfolds over the next several quarters. For those willing to zoom out, adjust expectations, and remain agile—opportunity will eventually return. But for now, discipline will be the most valuable asset in your portfolio.
This is not just a correction. This is a recalibration.
