Bitcoin Bear Market Alert: CryptoQuant CEO Predicts Market Adjustment Period May Last for Six Months
CryptoQuant's CEO Ki Young Ju recently issued a warning that Bitcoin may remain in a bear market for at least six months. This prediction is based on on-chain data showing that despite increased large capital inflows, Bitcoin's price lacks upward momentum. As of now, Bitcoin has fallen to a three-week low of around $75,000.
In a post on X, Ki Young analyzed the current state of the Bitcoin bear market, pointing out that a characteristic of bear markets is that actual market capitalization rises rather than stagnates or declines, indicating that although there is currently a large influx of capital into the market, prices have not reacted. This divergence suggests that even significant capital inflows may struggle to push up coin prices, in stark contrast to bull markets where "a small amount of capital can lift prices."
Ki Young also emphasized that when small capital drives prices up, it is a bull market. When large capital fails to push prices up, it is a bear market. Current data clearly points to the latter. Although sell pressure may ease at any time, historically, a true reversal requires at least six months, so a rebound in the short term seems unlikely.
Additionally, according to Coinglass data, Bitcoin's performance in the first quarter of 2025 is the worst, down 11.8%, marking the lowest point since 2018. However, historical cycle data shows that first-quarter losses have varying impacts on Bitcoin's annual performance.
For example, although the COVID panic caused Bitcoin to drop 10.83% in 2020, by the end of that year, Bitcoin had risen over 200%. However, based on the loss patterns in the first quarters of 2014, 2018, and 2022, it may indicate the end of a bull market and the start of a bear market.
Although Bitcoin saw a surge after Trump's election, the new tariff policies have also raised concerns about economic recession, further questioning Bitcoin's status as a hedge against the U.S. economy.
In the coming months, it may be validated whether Bitcoin is an independent store of value or a risk asset susceptible to market fluctuations.
Do you think this is a deep adjustment or a normal pullback in a bull market? Leave your observations and insights in the comments!
