Continue discussing the overall market perspective

The Dow Jones fell by 2.93%, and the Nasdaq fell by 4.57%

In the short term, the trade war makes it hard to see any hope; there’s nothing that can save the U.S. stock market, and nothing that can save the market.

Under normal logic, this trade war will lead to rising inflation, a significant rebound in CPI data, further suppressing the possibility of interest rate cuts. Similar to the conflict between Israel and Hamas, tariffs are being fought every month on the 2nd and 3rd, with a screen full of negative news; which investor dares to enter the market?

The only thing that can quickly save the market is a circuit breaker, only in extremely extreme situations. From the slow death of boiling frogs, breaking down and then rebuilding, taking a leap forward, similar to 312, will force the Federal Reserve to step in to save the market.

"Is it worth thinking about this question now—losing a $20 trillion stock market due to a $200 billion tariff???"

The first term is not worth it because he needs to rely on the stock market to help everyone make money; achieving common prosperity from ordinary people to major capital giants is a good method for re-election.

The second term is worth it because the money earned from increased tariffs is to help the U.S. government solve the $35 trillion debt problem; if stock investors lose money, what does it matter to the government? Bringing manufacturing back and creating a better employment environment for more Americans is his new fundamental base.

Before the main contradiction is resolved, anything could be a sacrifice; U.S. stocks are, and so is crypto. If a circuit breaker really occurs, I hope everyone can be happy as it’s time to pick up the pieces.

Having talked about U.S. stocks, let’s discuss some current short-term K-line technical points.

U.S. stocks have hit a new low; this week’s bearish pressure is significant, and it may drop to 36,000/37,000, with a 5% to 10% drop space left.

As for the crypto market, Bitcoin's cyclical adjustment time is lacking, so the extent of the drop here won’t exceed expectations. Currently, holding at 8.12 is not considered a break, while Ethereum at 1200 should not be bottom-fished casually.

Long positions can set stop losses, while short positions can increase holdings if there’s a rebound. The U.S. stock market did not recover last night, and today’s tariff decoupling is accelerating⏩; the recent fluctuations in the weather have not sparked interest; remain vigilant about risks and don’t bottom-fish easily.