Although everyone is lively in Hong Kong, the crypto market is as cold as an ice cellar. Are the whales collectively dumping in Hong Kong?

Bitcoin has fallen below 80,000, contradicting the many influencers who said the big coin wouldn't follow the stock market drop last week.

Ethereum has particularly been rubbed down by the bears, plummeting over 10%, falling below 1600 with no signs of a rebound.

The atmosphere over the whole weekend was so strange that it made people feel uneasy!

The current indifference in the market may be due to the ongoing digestion of panic.

Trump's tariff policy has filled the market with uncertainty, making retail investors hesitant to enter.

In response to the market crash caused by the tariff bomb, Trump directly replied: I did it on purpose!

The stock god Buffett, who holds a large amount of short-term U.S. Treasury bonds, has once again become a legend, but what's rarer is that Buffett has chosen to remain silent this time, stating that he won't comment on the market, economy, or tariffs before the shareholder meeting on May 3rd.

Does this silence signal that—beautiful country is brewing a bigger black swan?

At the same time, after releasing the big negative news about tariffs, Trump is actively brewing good news about tax cuts from the Fed.

After the tariff bomb, anti-Trump protests erupted across the U.S.

Trump conveniently shifted the blame to Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, claiming it was a good time for a rate cut!

It is said that Trump sent a WhatsApp message to Powell: Old man, look, this is because you are unwilling to cut rates.

On the other hand, Old Powell is still adamant about not cutting rates, repeatedly responding that monetary policy is based on economic data rather than political pressure, and clearly stating that he will not yield even if Trump asks him to resign or cut rates, as the law guarantees the Fed's autonomy.

According to the latest data, the probability of the Fed cutting rates in May is only 32%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 67%.

As for my view on the market, I believe the price of Bitcoin will eventually reach an unimaginable height, but before that, there will be a thorough reshuffling, and it’s not impossible for large holders like MicroStrategy, which don’t have a solid background, to be wiped out.

For players with a large enough volume, dollar-cost averaging Bitcoin is still the most stable profit target in the crypto circle.

Without actual business support, VC coins and memes driven solely by FOMO emotions will ultimately have only one outcome: going to zero!

Because the U.S. policy supporting crypto is gradually being implemented, all crypto projects will eventually be put to the test to see if they can run.

When the real deal appears, the impostor will be exposed—no matter how high the bragging goes, the fall will be equally harsh when the industry lands!

Now let's talk about which coins in the market are worth investing in:

BNB:

How should I put it, it feels like the yield from BNB's empowerment is just so-so now; basically, all the necessary empowerment has already been achieved.

If CZ cannot reintroduce empowerment, over time, the price of BNB has dropped from 650 to 581 today, showing a downward trend.

But in the long run, the bottom of BNB can still be played, supported by Binance's performance, and dollar-cost averaging during dips is a good strategy; after all, I personally hold for the long term.

SOL:

SOL is still relatively highly correlated with BTC, but the on-site autonomous market is quite strong (correlation coefficient > 0.7).

If there are signs of large whales accumulating on-chain (for example, net outflow from exchanges > 50,000 SOL), the probability of a rebound will significantly increase.

SOL's overbought and oversold conditions have always been quite strong, and it is the spot that the community promotes for back-and-forth operations.

The biggest problem with altcoins is not the decrease in market value, but the increase in quantity!

With each additional altcoin, in the absence of new capital in the market, liquidity will be divided, continually and sustainably suppressing the prices of all altcoins.

This dilemma is unsolvable in the context of overall poor liquidity; the only chance for a turnaround is when macro liquidity begins to recover.

Therefore, everyone would rather miss out than become the bag holder!