1. Current Market Situation and Technical Analysis
Price Volatility and Support-Resistance
Current Level: Bitcoin briefly rebounded to around $82,400 in the early hours of April 7 before falling back under pressure, failing to break through the $83,000 level.
Key Support: $81,200 is a strong support level that has been validated multiple times recently. The two dips to this level last week both triggered rebounds. If it effectively breaks today, it may trigger stop-loss orders and accelerate the decline, targeting $80,000 or even $78,200.
Resistance Zone: Short-term pressure is concentrated between $82,800 and $83,300. A breakout may test $84,300.
Technical Indicator Signals
Moving Average System: MA7 ($83,939) and MA30 ($83,950) are almost overlapping, showing that the bull and bear forces are temporarily balanced, with prices at a stage of directional choice.
Four-hour Chart: Continuous bearish candles and prices running along the lower Bollinger Band. Although the MACD bearish energy bars have decreased, a golden cross has not formed. The KDJ indicator is neutral but leaning weak, suggesting a bearish bias in the short term.
2. Market Driving Factors and Bull-Bear Tug of War
Macroeconomic Risks
U.S. Tariff Policy: Today (April 7), the U.S. officially implements a 10% baseline tariff. The market worries about intensified inflation pressure and the Federal Reserve delaying interest rate cuts, leading to a general pressure on risk assets. However, if the actual impact of the tariffs is less than expected (such as a relaxation in negotiations), it may trigger a rebound as 'bad news is fully priced in.'
Institutional Dynamics: BlackRock's ETF has been continuously increasing its holdings recently, but Grayscale's GBTC has seen fund outflows, indicating institutional divergence.
Chip Distribution and Market Sentiment
Chip Accumulation: A large amount of short-term bottom-fishing funds and stop-loss orders have accumulated around $81,200. If this level is broken, it may trigger a chain sell-off, leading to a rapid price decline.
Market Sentiment: Current investor sentiment is cautious, with significant shrinkage in trading volume (24-hour trading volume is only 17.65 billion USDT). One must be wary of flash crashes or rebounds caused by insufficient liquidity.
3. 'Breaking $81,200 may lead to a smooth path ahead'
Technical Verification: $81,200 is the starting point for multiple rebounds recently. If broken, it may breach the market's psychological defense line, leading to technical selling dominating the market, targeting the $78,200-$80,000 range.
Macroeconomic Negative Resonance: The tariff policy and the decline in U.S. tech stocks (e.g., NASDAQ futures evaporated $2 trillion in market value in one day) create a joint pressure, and Bitcoin may follow traditional risk assets in weakening.
Potential Risks and Counterpoints
Policy Tug-of-War Possibility: If the U.S. reaches a tariff exemption agreement with other economies (such as news stating that Dragon Brother plans to retaliate on April 10), the market may rebound due to expectation adjustments.
Oversold Rebound Demand: Bitcoin's short-term decline has reached 8.5% (from a high of $88,500). Data from open contracts shows that short positions are overly concentrated, presenting a risk of short squeeze.
4. Operation Suggestions and Strategies
Short-term Trading Strategy
Short Position Layout: If the price rebounds to the $82,800-$83,000 range, one can take a light short position, targeting $81,500-$80,700, with a stop loss at $83,500.
Long Position Tug-of-War: Aggressive investors can try a long position near $81,200, with a stop loss at $80,300, targeting $83,000-$84,300, and strict position management is required.
Risk Warning
Pay close attention to the actual impact of tariff policies and market reactions during today's U.S. trading hours, and avoid heavy operations during low liquidity periods (such as early Asian trading).
If the price breaks down significantly below $81,200, one must be wary of accelerated decline risks, but one should not blindly chase shorts; it is advisable to wait for a rebound to confirm the trend a second time.
By the way, $ETH garbage, don't buy it. Luckily, I didn't... You can also pay attention to the trading pairs of BTC and ETH $BTC .
