In 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) will present a pattern of 'high volatility and institutionalization in parallel'. In the short term, the price is driven by policy dividends and technological breakthroughs. Standard Chartered predicts it may hit $200,000 by the end of the year, while VanEck believes it might pull back 30% before reaching new highs. The current price has surpassed $86,000, forming a bullish pattern technically, with over $2.8 billion in the derivatives market betting on an upward trend, but caution is needed regarding short-term volatility triggered by whales shorting with 40x leverage.

The mid-term logic focuses on the expansion of institutional holdings and the implementation of regulatory frameworks. MicroStrategy's holdings have surpassed 500,000, and corporate holdings are expected to grow by 43%. Coupled with the advancement of the U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve plan, the supply-demand imbalance will enhance scarcity. On the regulatory front, the Trump administration is promoting stablecoin legislation, but the issuance of USD1 stablecoin by family businesses may delay the implementation of policies, and the G20 unified tax framework could trigger short-term fluctuations.