Today we are very happy to bring you (Hash Global BNB Valuation Report) - This is the fifth article in the Hash Global BNB value analysis series 🎉

Since 2019, Hash Global has proactively viewed BNB as a cross-cycle value investment target and took the lead in building a valuation model based on the monetary equation. In the following three years, we have seen the rapid expansion of the Binance ecosystem, which has driven BNB to quickly achieve our original price prediction.

In recent years, Binance has undergone internal adjustments and periods of dormancy. However, since 2025, we have observed that Binance has significantly shifted to a "defensive" state: against the backdrop of a shift in US policy attitudes and the industry entering a critical development period, the founder and team of Binance have continued to make efforts and innovate in on-chain technology, exchange operations, product features, and gameplay models.

In this report, we have raised our reasonable valuation of BNB to over $2,000, which still has nearly three times of upside potential compared to the current price. The market value is expected to exceed $300 billion, even surpassing Ethereum.

We believe that as a functional token, BNB is similar to the circulating currency in the Binance economy, and the most appropriate valuation method is the monetary equation (MV=PQ).

The BNB valuation framework based on the currency equation has been verified by the market, and we have recently observed that the Binance ecosystem continues to improve, bringing new breakthrough opportunities for BNB. In this report, we have raised the BNB price assessment to more than $2,000.

The core value support of BNB comes from its core exchange business. Over the past six years, Binance has continued to be the leading exchange and has completed the layout of the entire digital financial ecosystem. Its industry dominance constitutes a solid foundation for the value of BNB.

BNB's growth potential comes from the accelerated expansion of on-chain businesses. In 2025, Binance's on-chain ecosystem will develop rapidly, forming a closed-loop structure of exchanges, public chains, and wallets, building Web3 financial infrastructure, and BNB's value revaluation will begin.

The regulatory environment has improved, clearing up development uncertainties. With the shift in US regulation and the injection of capital from the UAE sovereign fund, Binance has accelerated its compliance and globalization process. The ecological moat has continued to strengthen, laying a solid foundation for BNB's rapid growth.

BNB valuation calculation: Valuation framework based on the monetary equation: MV = PQ

We use the classic Fisher Monetary Equation (MV=PQ) as the theoretical basis for BNB valuation. The core lies in identifying and quantifying two key factors:

- Ecological economic total (PQ)

- Actual circulation of tokens (M)

The valuation of BNB essentially depends on the dynamic changes and balance of these two.

Theoretical circulation of BNB: Theoretical circulation of BNB = total supply - team holdings - historical cumulative destruction

BNB actual circulation (M): BNB actual circulation M = theoretical circulation - locked amount

In addition to the theoretical circulation, we believe that some BNB will be locked due to staking, long-term holding, financial management, etc., and will not participate in actual circulation. Therefore, we exclude this part of the locked volume in the valuation to more accurately reflect the actual circulation of BNB in ​​the ecosystem.

BNB circulation rate: The circulation rate is a key variable in the currency equation. Based on the known data in 2024 (total ecosystem value, circulation volume and average price), we calculated that BNB's circulation rate for that year was 0.57. Subsequent valuations will use this as a benchmark and adjust the calculation of the circulation rate based on actual price dynamics.

BNB total economic value P*Q: We assume that the total economic value of the Binance ecosystem comes from the economic value of centralized exchanges + the economic value of BNB Chain

BNB theoretical price: We combine the annual economic value sources of BNB, combine the actual circulation, estimate the annual value increment of BNB according to the currency equation, and use a 10% discount rate to get a reasonable valuation of BNB: $2039.58

Appendix: Hash Global's past four reports - BNB target price achievement timeline