Today we are pleased to present (Hash Global BNB Valuation Report) — the fifth article in Hash Global's BNB value analysis series 🎉

Since 2019, Hash Global has proactively viewed BNB as a valuable investment target for cross-cycle holding and pioneered the construction of a valuation model based on the monetary equation. In the following three years, we witnessed the rapid expansion of the Binance ecosystem, propelling BNB to quickly realize our initial price forecast.

In recent years, Binance has undergone internal adjustments and phases of dormancy. However, since 2025, we have observed that Binance has significantly shifted from a 'defensive' state: against the backdrop of a shift in U.S. policy and the industry entering a critical development phase, Binance's founder and team have continued to exert efforts and innovate in areas such as on-chain technology, exchange operations, product functions, and gameplay models.

In this report, we have raised the reasonable valuation of BNB to over $2000, which still has nearly three times upside potential compared to the current price, with a market cap expected to exceed $300 billion, possibly surpassing Ethereum.

We believe that: BNB, as a functional token, is similar to the circulating currency within the Binance economy, and the most suitable valuation approach corresponds to the monetary equation (MV=PQ).

The BNB valuation framework based on the monetary equation has been validated by the market, and recently we have observed that the Binance ecosystem continues to improve, bringing new breakthrough opportunities for BNB. In this report, we have raised the BNB price assessment to over $2000.

The core value support of BNB comes from its core exchange business. Over the past six years, Binance has consistently maintained its leading position in the exchange market and completed the full ecological layout of digital finance, which constitutes a solid foundation for BNB's value.

The growth potential of BNB comes from the accelerated expansion of on-chain businesses. By 2025, the Binance ecosystem is rapidly developing, forming a closed-loop pattern of exchanges, public chains, and wallets, creating Web3 financial infrastructure, and initiating the revaluation of BNB.

Improved regulatory environment clears away development uncertainties. The shift in U.S. regulation + investment from the UAE sovereign fund accelerates Binance's compliance and globalization process. The ecological moat continues to strengthen, laying a solid foundation for the rapid rise of BNB.

BNB Valuation Calculation: Valuation framework based on the monetary equation: MV = PQ

We adopt the classic Fisher monetary equation (MV=PQ) as the theoretical basis for BNB valuation. The core lies in identifying and quantifying two key factors:

- Ecological Economic Total (PQ)

- Actual Circulation of Tokens (M)

The valuation of BNB essentially depends on the dynamic changes and balance of these two factors.

Theoretical Circulation of BNB: The theoretical circulation of BNB = total supply - team holding - historical cumulative destruction

Actual Circulation of BNB (M): The actual circulation of BNB M = theoretical circulation - locked quantity

Beyond the theoretical circulation, we believe a portion of BNB will be locked due to staking, long-term holding, and wealth management, thus not participating in actual circulation. Therefore, we exclude this portion of locked quantity from our valuation to more accurately reflect the true circulation of BNB in the ecosystem.

The circulation rate of BNB: The circulation rate is a key variable in the monetary equation. Based on known data for 2024 (total ecological value, circulation, and average price), we estimate the circulation rate of BNB for that year to be 0.57. Subsequent valuations will use this as a benchmark and adjust the calculation of circulation rate based on actual price dynamics.

Total Economic Value of BNB P*Q: We assume that the total economic value of the Binance ecosystem comes from the economic value of centralized exchanges + the economic value of BNB Chain.

Theoretical Price of BNB: We combine the annual economic value sources of BNB for calculation, combine actual circulation, estimate the annual value increment of BNB according to the monetary equation, and derive a reasonable valuation of BNB at a discount rate of 10% as: $2039.58

Appendix: Hash Global Past Four Reports - BNB Target Price Achievement Timeline