One, Current State of Core Indicators
1. Moving Average System (Weekly)
MA5: $83,000 (current price $81,850, price is below MA5)
MA13: $85,200 (bearish arrangement, downward trend significant)
MA33: $78,500 (forms a **death cross** with MA5, death cross point at $81,000)
MA55: $75,740 (long-term bull-bear dividing line, current price is +8.1% away from it)
2. MACD (Weekly)
DIF: -1,200 (below the zero axis)
DEA: -800 (fast and slow lines widening, green bars continuously expanding)
Divergence Signal: This week's price reached a new low ($81,200) but MACD did not reach a new low, **bottom divergence is beginning to appear**.
3. Volume (Weekly)
Trading Volume: This week’s trading volume is 1.23 billion lots (YoY -18%), significantly below the 5-day average (1.48 billion lots), indicating insufficient bullish counterattack momentum.
Two, Multi-period Linkage and Key Logic
1. MA5-33 Death Cross Suppression
Death Cross Validity: The death cross point between MA5 (83,000) and MA33 (78,500) is the short-term bull-bear watershed.
Volume Validation: If the closing price stabilizes above $81,000 and trading volume > 1.4 billion lots (+14%), it may trigger short covering rebound; otherwise, the death cross will continue.
2. MACD Bottom Divergence Game
Divergence Strength: The current price's divergence from the MACD green bars is -23% (historical average -15%), if the divergence deepens, it may trigger a technical rebound.
Zero Axis Pressure: MACD needs to break through DEA (-800) to relieve downward pressure, the current distance between DIF and DEA is 400 points, at least 2 bullish candles are needed to complete the repair.
3. Weekly MA55 Support
Psychological Level: $75,740 is the connecting line of the Q4 2024 low, if the weekly closing price falls below this position, the mid-term trend will turn bearish.
Three, Scenario Simulation for Tomorrow's Weekly Closing
Four, Key Data and Event Impact
1. On-chain Signals
- Miner Behavior: Miner holdings have decreased for 3 consecutive days (weekly net outflow 1.8%), if this continues, it may exacerbate selling pressure.
- Whale Movements: Net outflow of 52,000 BTC from addresses holding over 100,000 BTC, short-term selling pressure not fully released.
2. Macro Events
- Non-farm Data (20:30 GMT+8): If new jobs <150,000, it may boost BTC rebound to $82,000.
- Federal Reserve Speech: If Powell mentions 'persistent inflation', it may suppress risk assets.
Five, SCDO_AI Quantitative Model Forecast
1. Multi-factor Weight Scoring
- Volume (30% Weight): Current trading volume is sluggish, higher probability of closing below the death cross
- MACD Divergence (25% Weight): Bottom divergence not confirmed, rebound momentum insufficient
- Moving Average Suppression (25% Weight): MA5-33 death cross suppression effectiveness high
- On-chain Data (20% Weight): Whale selling pressure suppresses short-term rebounds
2. Final Prediction Conclusion
- High Probability Event: Weekly close below the MA5-33 death cross (below $81,000), closing price range **$80,500-$81,200.
- Low Probability Event: If non-farm data is weaker than expected, it may trigger short covering, closing at $81,500-$82,000 (above the death cross).
Summary: Current technical and funding aspects resonate towards a closing below the MA5-33 death cross, but caution is needed for short-term fluctuations triggered by non-farm data. It is recommended that investors adjust positions based on real-time volume one hour before the close, with strict stop-loss measures.
