#比特币对抗市场 Bitcoin's recent technical outlook shows a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. The short-term moving average system (such as the 50-day and 200-day moving averages) has formed a death cross, compounded by on-chain data showing active addresses and trading volume declining for three consecutive months, with the UTXO count dropping to bear market levels of 2023, indicating weakened market confidence and increased selling pressure. The current price is operating below the EMA24 and EMA52 moving averages, with the slope of the moving averages downward, and short-term downward momentum is still being released. However, the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and the possible expectation of QE resumption, along with the gradual easing of U.S. regulatory policies towards cryptocurrencies, provide support for the long-term trend.

From a technical indicator perspective, although Bitcoin has fallen below the MA-200 moving average, the RSI and MACD are showing divergence signals in the oversold region. If the price can effectively hold above the key support level of $83,000, it may trigger short-covering and a technical rebound. In terms of institutional fund flows, Bitcoin spot ETFs have recently shown significant volatility, with a single-day net outflow of $93.2 million, reflecting weak market sentiment. Investors need to pay attention to the breakout of the $85,000 resistance level; if it can stabilize above this level with increased volume, it may start a new upward cycle; conversely, if it dips below $80,000, it may trigger a more significant retracement. It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait-and-see approach in the short term, while closely tracking the Federal Reserve's policies and regulatory dynamics in the medium to long term.