*1. Key price levels (January-April 2025)**
- **Historical maximum:** $109,588 (01.01.2025)
- **Correction bottom:** $78,150 (01.02.2025)
- **Bounce:** $94,600 (01.03.2025)
- **Current price:** $82,934 (06.04.2025)
**Technical picture:**
- On the monthly timeframe, a **"inverted hammer" pattern** has formed (long upper shadow, small body).
- This is a **signal of potential reversal** after a downtrend.
**2. Detailed analysis of the pattern**
### **🔵 Why is the "inverted hammer" important?**
1. **Formed at strong support** ($78K – $81K):
- The price tested the $78K-$80K zone three times and bounced back.
2. **High volume on decline in March** – a sign of weak hands capitulation.
3. **Long upper shadow** indicates:
- Sellers tried to lower the price, but buyers took the initiative.
**🔵 Confirming factors:**
- **RSI (monthly):** ~45 (neutral, no oversold conditions).
- **MACD:** Histogram is decreasing – a decline in bearish strength.
- **Volumes:** Increased in the March decline, but decreased in April – possible trend change.
**3. Scenarios for April-May 2025**
**✅ Optimistic scenario (upward reversal):**
- **Triggers:**
- Closing in April above $85,000.
- Growth of institutional demand (ETF, hedge funds).
- **Targets:**
- $88,000 (first resistance).
- $94,600 (March high).
- $100,000 (psychological level).
**❌ Bearish scenario (continuation of correction):**
- **If the price closes April below $78K:**
- A downtrend will be confirmed.
- Next support: $72,000 (2024 level).
**4. Trading strategy**
**🔵 For buyers:**
1. **Current entry zone:** $82,000 – $80,000.
2. **Stop-loss:** $77,900 (below February's minimum).
3. **Take-profits:**
- $85,000 → locking in 30%.
- $88,000 → locking in 50%.
- $94,000 → remaining 20%.
### **🔵 For sellers:**
1. **Shorts on break of $80K:**
- Target $78,000 → $75,000.
2. **Stop-loss:** $83,500 (above local maximum).
**🔵 Additional tools:**
- **Staking stablecoins:** Keep 20-30% in USDT at 5-7% annual interest.
- **Options:** Buying CALL options at $85K (June 2025) as insurance.
**5. Critical factors to watch**
- **Macroeconomics:** Inflation data in the US (if the Fed hints at easing).
- **Politics:** Regulatory decisions on crypto (ETF, taxes).
- **Technology:** Upgrades to Bitcoin (e.g., activation of new OP_Codes). **Conclusion:**
- **April 2025 – a turning point for BTC.**
- **Inverted hammer on the monthly timeframe – a strong buy signal.**
- **Key levels:**
- **Support:** $78,000 – $80,000.
- **Resistance:** $85,000 – $88,000.
🚀 **Recommendation:** Accumulation in the current zone with strict risk management.