#分散资产

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell reiterated in his latest speech that "keeping interest rates unchanged is appropriate," emphasizing that the target of bringing inflation down to 2% has not yet been achieved. He particularly pointed out that inflation in the service sector remains high, and while the labor market has cooled, wage growth pressures still exist.

It is noteworthy that Powell acknowledged for the first time that recent inflation data "lacks further progress," which is interpreted as a hint that the possibility of a rate cut in June may have decreased. However, he also maintained policy flexibility, stating that decisions will be made "on a meeting-by-meeting basis" according to the data.

The market reacted quickly, with CME interest rate futures showing the probability of a rate cut in September rising to 68%, and the dollar index jumping 0.4% in a short time. Analysts believe that this hawkish statement may extend the strong dollar cycle, but if employment data deteriorates significantly, a policy shift may happen sooner.