Last night, old Powell made it very clear: the inflation situation is not good, and the Fed cannot take any action right now. Don't even think about discussing a rate cut in May, or even when a rate cut might happen. Just don't think about it. My summary of his recent style in one sentence - neither hawkish nor dovish, firmly standing in the middle, doing nothing.

Old Powell is actually a "master of expectation management". He sees that recent inflation expectations have risen again due to increased tariffs, and his professional integrity does not allow him to play dumb. Let’s not forget another important background: he is really unhappy with Trump's style of casually intervening in the Fed and arbitrarily raising tariffs. He is now guarding not just the policy line, but also his historical position, after all, anyone doing this job wants to leave some "I was so stable back in the day" evaluations.