Powell warned that new tariffs could drive up inflation and slow economic growth, which makes sense. From an economic perspective, tariffs are essentially a trade barrier that increases the cost of imported goods. These costs are often passed on to consumers, leading to price increases, which is inflationary pressure. Furthermore, if other countries impose retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods, American exports could be hampered, thereby dragging down economic growth. Powell's mention of these risks indicates that he is concerned about the potential chain reactions of tariffs on the real economy, rather than mere theoretical speculation.

He also stated that the Federal Reserve will 'remain cautious,' reflecting a prudent approach to monetary policy. The primary responsibility of the Federal Reserve is to maintain price stability and promote employment. If tariffs lead to soaring inflation, the Federal Reserve may need to raise interest rates to cool the economy; but if economic growth slows, it may need to lower rates to stimulate the economy. These two possibilities make the policy outlook 'highly uncertain,' as Powell said. Therefore, his choice to remain cautious may be an attempt to wait for more data to avoid premature actions that could trigger market chaos.

The phrase 'beyond expectations' is quite interesting. Trump's tariff policy may be more aggressive in scale or scope than the Federal Reserve anticipated, which has left Powell somewhat caught off guard. However, he emphasizes the 'risk of sustained inflation,' also suggesting that he is more concerned about runaway inflation rather than a short-term economic slowdown. This may reflect the current economic environment—inflation is already a sensitive topic, and any additional pressure could complicate the Federal Reserve's task of controlling inflation.

In my view, Powell's stance is very pragmatic. He does not directly criticize the tariff policy (after all, the Federal Reserve tries to remain neutral), but focuses on its economic consequences, reminding everyone where the risks lie. Meanwhile, he is not in a hurry to express specific countermeasures, showing a clear awareness of the complex situation. However, if tariffs are indeed implemented on a large scale, how long he can maintain this 'wait and see' strategy is a question. The market and the public may push the Federal Reserve for a clear signal, and at that time, merely waiting may not be enough.