Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high between Q3 2025 and Q1 2026?
The analysis is based on several factors related to macroeconomic and market dynamics, and here is a brief summary of the key points:
Short-term volatility and Trump’s policies: Trump's economic plan may bring short-term market pressure by suppressing the dollar and yields, and the market is currently digesting this new baseline.
Medium-term effects: Tariff policies may reduce foreign purchases of U.S. Treasury bonds, forcing domestic absorption of more debt. Bitcoin's sensitivity to global liquidity may benefit it in the medium to long term.
Market sentiment and Federal Reserve response: The market may hit bottom due to recession concerns, but when the recession actually arrives, the focus will shift to the Federal Reserve's easing policies. The Fed may ultimately cut interest rates and pave the way for further liquidity measures in 2026.
Altcoin performance: High-quality altcoins may follow Bitcoin's trajectory, finding a bottom before the market recovery, while low-quality projects will be eliminated. Market participants tend to invest in high-quality assets like Bitcoin during liquidity stress, and then expand to other assets as liquidity improves.
Short-term uncertainty and patience: Predicting market trends in the short term (1-12 weeks) is very difficult, and it is advised to remain patient and plan to gradually increase risk exposure in the coming weeks or months, looking favorably at the overall outlook starting in Q1 2026.
Overall, the above points emphasize Bitcoin's potential in the next one to two years, while reminding investors to pay attention to macroeconomic trends and changes in market liquidity rather than short-term price fluctuations.
