The scenario regarding Trump's tariffs and their possible consequences for Brazil raises important points and deserves careful analysis. We can outline two scenarios:
Opportunity: If countries facing tariffs from the USA seek alternatives, Brazil, as a major agricultural producer, could become a more attractive supplier. This could lead to a significant increase in demand for products such as soybeans, corn, meat, etc.
Current reality: Brazil is already an important global player in agribusiness, directly competing with the USA in many markets. The imposition of American tariffs could accelerate a trend of diversifying purchases by other countries towards Brazil, especially if political and trade relations become more favorable.
Example: During the trade war between the USA and China, there was a notable increase in Brazilian soybean exports to China.
Scarcity and inflation: A sudden and drastic increase in external demand could indeed lead to a scarcity of products in the Brazilian domestic market. With less supply available, food prices for the Brazilian population would certainly rise, generating inflation.
Pressure on infrastructure: Brazil's capacity to handle a massive increase in exports is a concern. Logistical bottlenecks in ports, roads, and storage could limit the ability to respond to demand and increase costs.
Trade diversion: The concern that exporting countries may use Brazil as a "springboard" to sell to the USA (taking advantage of possibly lower Brazilian rates) is valid. This could distort the Brazilian market and not necessarily bring long-term benefits to the national industry.
Possible advancements and the need for control: Growth of trade and industry: If the increase in external demand is managed strategically, prioritizing the export of surplus after meeting the domestic market, Brazil could indeed experience growth in its trade and potentially stimulate its food processing industry and other related sectors.
Control policy: Your suggestion for a policy to control the market, ensuring that only the surplus is exported, is crucial. This intervention could help mitigate the risks of scarcity and inflation while allowing the country to benefit from the increase in external demand. This policy would need to be well-planned to avoid harming the competitiveness of Brazilian exporters or creating excessive bureaucracy.
The imposition of tariffs by the USA can create opportunities for Brazil in the global market, especially in the agricultural sector. However, this situation also presents significant risks of scarcity and inflation in the domestic market. Strategic management and government policies that control the flow of exports, prioritizing domestic supply, would be essential for Brazil to take advantage of potential benefits without harming its population and economy. Additionally, investments in infrastructure would be essential to support an increase in trade volume.