1. Today's core logic of the market
Technical analysis: The game between bearish pressure and oversold rebounds
Daily level:
Price trend: SOL price has continued to decline recently, currently quoted at about 119.3 USD, with a daily high of 120.52 USD and a low of 113.28 USD, showing a clear downward trend.
Moving average system: The price is below the short-term moving average (such as the 5-day moving average), indicating that bears dominate in the short term.
Bollinger Bands: The price is close to the lower Bollinger Band, indicating a potential demand for a technical rebound.
4-hour level:
MACD indicator: The DIF line and DEA line are below the zero axis, and the DIF line crosses below the DEA line to form a death cross, showing that bearish momentum remains strong.
RSI indicator: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is close to the oversold area of 30, suggesting a potential rebound in the short term.
On-chain data: The impact of unlocking events and market sentiment
Token unlocking: It is reported that on April 4, 2025, Solana will unlock tokens worth about 200 million USD, the largest single-day unlocking event since 2021.
Market sentiment: Large token unlocks may trigger market concerns about selling pressure, and the flow of funds and market reaction after the unlock need to be closely monitored.
Macro event driven:
FTX repayment plan: FTX plans to start repaying about 800 million USD in debts on May 30, of which 61% of the assets are Solana tokens. This news may impact the SOL price, and relevant dynamics need to be continuously monitored.
2. Today's key support and resistance levels
Support level:
115 USD: Previous low point area, if the price retraces to this area, it may find support.
110 USD: Psychological barrier, if this level is broken, it may trigger further selling pressure.
Resistance level:
125 USD: Area where short-term moving averages are located, which may exert pressure on the price.
130 USD: Previous high point area, breaking this level is expected to open up further upside potential.
3. Today's operational strategy
Bearish strategy:
Entry range: If the price rebounds to around 125 USD and faces resistance, consider establishing short positions.
Stop-loss: Set above 130 USD to control risks.
Target: Look towards the 115 USD support level, if broken, then focus on the 110 USD area.
Bullish strategy:
Entry range: If the price retraces to around 115 USD and shows stabilization signals, consider lightly positioning long positions.
Stop-loss: Set below 110 USD to prevent losses from further declines.
Target: First look towards 125 USD, if broken, then focus on the 130 USD resistance level.
4. Tomorrow's (April 5) market prediction
Scenario 1 (Probability 50%): Continuation of the downward trend
Trigger condition: A large sell-off occurs after the token unlock, and market confidence is undermined.
Path: The price breaks below the 115 USD support level and further declines to 110 USD or even lower.
Key indicators: Increased trading volume, MACD indicator continues to decline, RSI remains in the oversold area.
Scenario 2 (Probability 30%): Technical rebound
Trigger condition: The price stabilizes at the 115 USD support level, and the RSI indicator rebounds from the oversold area.
Path: The price rebounds to the 125 USD resistance level, and if it breaks through, it will look further to 130 USD.
Key indicators: Moderate increase in trading volume, MACD indicator shows a golden cross signal.
Scenario 3 (Probability 20%): Range oscillation
Trigger condition: The market lacks a clear direction, and investors have a strong wait-and-see sentiment.
Path: The price oscillates and consolidates in the range of 115 USD to 125 USD.
Strategy: Sell high and buy low, short-term operations.
5. Risk warning and strategy adjustment
Token unlocking risk: Large-scale token unlocking may lead to increased market selling pressure, and close attention should be paid to market reactions after the unlock.
Impact of macro events: The FTX repayment plan and other macro events may cause fluctuations in SOL prices, and relevant dynamics need to be continuously monitored.
Stop-loss discipline: Strictly implement stop-loss strategies, control the risk of single trades, and avoid significant losses caused by severe market fluctuations.
Risk warning: The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investors should develop reasonable investment strategies based on their risk tolerance and strictly implement stop-loss measures.
