$BTC Tonight is another decisive battle, Non-Farm Payroll + Powell's Speech.

Bitcoin once again held near 81,000. We observed that although U.S. stocks plunged sharply and almost triggered a circuit breaker, Bitcoin was able to stabilize at the support level, not breaking 81,000. A sharp decline often catches people off guard, rather than continuing to dive sharply under existing expectations.

So will it break 81,000 later? I still predict it will break 81,000, but it must first rise to around 85,000 to seize the liquidity from the bears, creating a warm bullish environment, and then use a sudden negative news, such as significant countermeasures from the country like increasing tariffs, to slam down by 10,000 points.

Tonight's data is not the key; Powell's speech is the top priority! Because no matter what the data is, high unemployment rate = economic recession (drop), low unemployment rate = no interest rate cut (drop). As long as Powell does not soften his stance on interest rate cuts, the market will continue to be negative.

But I believe we should not be overly pessimistic; at least there is still an expectation of interest rate cuts this year. If this expectation changes from two rate cuts to four rate cuts, Bitcoin will see a strong rebound.

As for altcoins, forget it; there is no altcoin worth longing for, including Ethereum and Solana. There can be countless altcoins, and they must compete with each other; none of them are irreplaceable. The only widely recognized cryptocurrency is Bitcoin, with a status comparable to gold, backed by large institutions like BlackRock and MicroStrategy. Other altcoins merely depend on Bitcoin. My view on altcoins is to wait for them to rise, then short them with a small position.

In terms of operations, go long BTC lightly at 81,800, betting that Powell will soothe the market tonight, and set a short at 84,888.