#加密市场回调 Tonight is another decisive battle, Non-Farm Payroll + Powell's speech.

Bitcoin has once again held support near 81,000. We observed that even though U.S. stocks have plummeted and almost triggered a circuit breaker, Bitcoin has managed to stabilize at the support level, not breaking below 81,000. A sharp drop often catches people off guard, rather than continuing to plunge under already expected circumstances.

So will it break below 81,000 later? I still predict it will break below 81,000, but it must rise again to around 85,000 to capture liquidity from the bears, creating a warm environment for bulls, and then utilize a sudden negative event, such as significant tariffs or other negative news, to plunge down by 10,000 points.

Tonight's data is not key; Powell's speech is the most important! Because regardless of the data's nature, a high unemployment rate = economic recession (drop), a low unemployment rate = no interest rate cuts (drop). As long as Powell does not indicate a change in his stance on interest rate cuts, the market will remain pessimistic.

However, I believe we should not be overly pessimistic. There is at least still an expectation for interest rate cuts this year. If this expectation shifts from two cuts to four cuts, Bitcoin could see a strong rebound.

As for altcoins, forget them; there is no altcoin worth holding onto, including Ethereum and Solana. There can be countless altcoins, and they must compete with each other; none of them are irreplaceable. The only widely recognized virtual currency is Bitcoin, which holds a status similar to gold, backed by significant players like BlackRock and MicroStrategy. Other altcoins merely rely on Bitcoin. My view on altcoins is to wait for them to rise, then short with a small position.

In terms of operations, short BTC lightly at 81,800, betting that Powell will reassure the market tonight, and place a sell order at 84,888.