Bull-Bear Game and Key Nodes from 15-Minute Candlestick Perspective

I. Current Market Overview

  • Price Dynamics:

    • The price fell from 83,752 USD in the morning, accelerated down to 81,201 USD in the afternoon, then rebounded to oscillate in the 81,800-82,700 USD range, currently reported near 81,850 USD.

    • Daily level is under pressure from MA7 (82,010 USD), 4-hour chart shows a 'stepped down channel', bears are dominant but short-term oversold recovery demand is increasing.

  • Volume Signal:

    • Current trading volume (3.26K) is below the 5-day average (6.76K), rebound momentum is insufficient, beware of false breakout risks.

II. Key Observation Points for 15-Minute Candlestick (Evening to Tomorrow Morning)

  1. Support and Resistance

    • Support Level:

      • 81,500 USD (psychological level): If it falls below, it may trigger short-term selling pressure, targeting down to 80,000 USD.

      • 78,000 USD (CME Futures Gap): Strong support area, requires extreme bearish event to trigger.

    • Resistance Level:

      • 82,010 USD (MA7 Moving Average): After breaking, may test the range of 82,500-83,000 USD.

      • 83,800 USD (4-hour EMA30): If it stabilizes, it opens up rebound space.

  2. Technical Indicator Signals

    • MACD: 15-minute level green bars shorten, DIF and DEA approach the zero axis; if a golden cross forms, it may trigger a 1-2 hour rebound.

    • RSI: Current 45 (neutral to weak), if it rises above 50, it will enhance bullish confidence.

    • Bollinger Bands: The upper and lower bands narrow to 81,200-82,500 USD, price close to the middle band, volatility may increase.

III. Evening Operation Strategy

  1. Bullish Opportunity

    • Entry Conditions: Price stabilizes at 81,800 USD and trading volume increases to above 5K.

    • Targets: First target 82,500 USD (+3.2%), second target 83,000 USD (+4.1%).

    • Stop Loss: Exit if it falls below 81,500 USD.

  2. Bearish Opportunity

    • Entry Conditions: Rebound to the 0-82,500 USD range under pressure, MACD has not formed a golden cross.

    • Targets: First target 81,500 USD (-3.1%), second target 80,000 USD (-4.7%).

    • Stop Loss: Exit if it breaks above 82,800 USD.

IV. Focus Points for Tomorrow Morning

  1. Data Events:

    • 20:30 US March Non-Farm Payroll Report: If employment data is weak (expected to add 200,000 jobs), it may boost risk assets and drive BTC rebound.

    • 22:00 Federal Reserve Official Speech: Pay attention to Powell's statements on interest rate cuts, hawkish remarks may suppress rebound space.

  2. On-Chain Signals:

    • Whale Movements: Monitor whether the 42,633 ETH longs on the 1894 USD orders are executed; if triggered, it may drive BTC to rise in tandem.

    • Miner Behavior: If miner holdings continue to decline (current net outflow of 1.2 BTC in 24 hours), beware of intensified selling pressure.

V. Risk Warning

  • Liquidity Risk: Current BTC futures holdings are 28.5 billion USD, perpetual contract funding rate +0.008%, short covering may trigger a short-term surge.

  • Policy Disturbance: Trump's tariff escalation led to a sharp drop in US stocks; if panic spreads, BTC may fall below 80,000 USD.

Summary:

  • Evening Strategy: Focus on high selling and low buying in the 81,500-81,800 USD range, strict stop loss.

  • Tomorrow's Key: Non-farm data and Powell's speech may become the turning point; if it stabilizes above 82,000 USD, light positions can be tried long; otherwise, beware of accelerated decline risks.

(Data as of April 4, 2025, 22:00, strategy needs to be adjusted based on real-time market conditions)#持有SCDO未来星辰大海