JPMORGAN RAISES RECESSION ODDS FOR THIS YEAR TO 60%
JPMorgan warns Trump’s new tariffs increase U.S. and global recession risk. Economist Bruce Kasman now sees a 60% chance of a U.S. recession (up from 40%). A global downturn is also likely but not certain. U.S. tariffs take effect next week, with uncertainty over negotiations and global responses. China has already announced a 34% retaliatory tariff. The U.S. economy showed signs of slowing in late 2024, though unemployment remains low at 4.1%. Kasman is holding off on revising forecasts until the impact becomes clearer.