鸡父
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Daily Market Analysis in Crypto (04.03)
Summary:
1. On the US stock market, retail investors who tried to catch the bottom have already been trapped.
2. The macroeconomic situation is in a dilemma.
3. If you don't trade natural gas in April, you will regret it in October.
4. A significant adjustment is needed in the strategy related to gold.
5. The cryptocurrency market is relatively clear; as of now, it is generally in line with expectations, with some minor changes at smaller time frames, likely leading to another 4-hour level structure.
Operations:
1. Position $BTC is currently held short, with a take profit at 62000.
2. Position $SOL \$ETH : In the coming days, as long as Bitcoin returns to the EMA60 at the 4-hour level, add a 1% short position. If it reaches EMA125, add a 2% short position. The second 4-hour level drop for Bitcoin will inevitably break below 76500, at which point we will take profit and exit the ETH/SOL short positions.
3. At least 10 people have asked me about bottom-fishing in altcoin spot trading (I suspect they are actually trapped in spot and want to lower their average cost to break even). I will elaborate on the operations of altcoins and large-cap stocks in the next market analysis. From the perspective of the altcoin seasonal index (14), altcoins have entered the bottom-fishing zone, but Bitcoin's daily level drop has not fully played out yet. It still needs time, so patience is required.
It is worth mentioning that we observed a waterfall-style crash in some altcoins represented by ACT recently. I saw someone interpret this as platforms harvesting market makers; I personally disagree because while platforms might harvest market makers, they would also harvest retail contract traders. Currently, market depth is already poor, and there is no reason for platforms to do that. After all, platforms primarily make money from the transaction fees of retail contract traders (very few people operate spot daily; at least more than half of those in contracts are doing intra-day short trades, making the fee differences very apparent). I personally lean towards the idea that the manipulators predicted the waterfall on April 2 and fled early, similar to last December's crash in altcoins (when the altcoin seasonal index was 94), it's the same principle.
Finally, during a bear market, everyone should manage their profit expectations well. Don't think about making a fortune from shorting in a bear market; that is putting the cart before the horse. Making big money is certainly about making big profits in spot during a bull market. In a bear market, just earning enough to cover living expenses for the year is sufficient; don't be too greedy.
Summary:
1. On the US stock market, retail investors who tried to catch the bottom have already been trapped.
2. The macroeconomic situation is in a dilemma.
3. If you don't trade natural gas in April, you will regret it in October.
4. A significant adjustment is needed in the strategy related to gold.
5. The cryptocurrency market is relatively clear; as of now, it is generally in line with expectations, with some minor changes at smaller time frames, likely leading to another 4-hour level structure.
Operations:
1. Position $BTC is currently held short, with a take profit at 62000.
2. Position $SOL \$ETH : In the coming days, as long as Bitcoin returns to the EMA60 at the 4-hour level, add a 1% short position. If it reaches EMA125, add a 2% short position. The second 4-hour level drop for Bitcoin will inevitably break below 76500, at which point we will take profit and exit the ETH/SOL short positions.
3. At least 10 people have asked me about bottom-fishing in altcoin spot trading (I suspect they are actually trapped in spot and want to lower their average cost to break even). I will elaborate on the operations of altcoins and large-cap stocks in the next market analysis. From the perspective of the altcoin seasonal index (14), altcoins have entered the bottom-fishing zone, but Bitcoin's daily level drop has not fully played out yet. It still needs time, so patience is required.
It is worth mentioning that we observed a waterfall-style crash in some altcoins represented by ACT recently. I saw someone interpret this as platforms harvesting market makers; I personally disagree because while platforms might harvest market makers, they would also harvest retail contract traders. Currently, market depth is already poor, and there is no reason for platforms to do that. After all, platforms primarily make money from the transaction fees of retail contract traders (very few people operate spot daily; at least more than half of those in contracts are doing intra-day short trades, making the fee differences very apparent). I personally lean towards the idea that the manipulators predicted the waterfall on April 2 and fled early, similar to last December's crash in altcoins (when the altcoin seasonal index was 94), it's the same principle.
Finally, during a bear market, everyone should manage their profit expectations well. Don't think about making a fortune from shorting in a bear market; that is putting the cart before the horse. Making big money is certainly about making big profits in spot during a bull market. In a bear market, just earning enough to cover living expenses for the year is sufficient; don't be too greedy.
Disclaimer: Includes third-party opinions. No financial advice. May include sponsored content. See T&Cs.
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