I. Current market panorama scan
As of April 4, 2025, KAS/USDT reported $0.062 on Binance, down 4.6% (-$0.003) in a single day, with an intraday volatility of 9.8% ($0.058-$0.067), and a 24-hour trading volume surging to $180 million (+52%), indicating fierce bull-bear competition.
Key data:
Panic index: 26 (extreme panic)
Funding rate: -0.02% (slightly favoring shorts)
Whale movements: A single-day transfer of 120 million KAS (valued at $74.4 million), of which 60 million transferred to cold wallets, setting the record for the largest single-day outflow since November 2024.
II. Technical multidimensional deconstruction
Key support and resistance
Support level:
First support: $0.060 (100-hour moving average + Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level)
Strong support: $0.050 (November 2024 low + options protection level)
Resistance level:
First resistance: $0.068 (4-hour descending trend line)
Strong resistance: $0.085 (March 2025 rebound high)
Indicator signals
MACD: Daily death cross and histogram expands to -0.00012, but a bottom divergence appears at the 1-hour level, indicating short-term rebound momentum accumulation.
RSI: 30 (oversold zone), but volume-weighted RSI is only 28, indicating that bearish momentum has not been fully released.
On-chain structure
Mining mechanism controversy: Recently, miner hash power decreased by 8%, and some miners shut down due to yields being lower than U.S. Treasury yields (4.2%).
Liquidity contraction: DEX trading volume ratio drops to 15%, centralized exchanges (CEX) dominate liquidity, posing a risk of price manipulation.
III. Macroeconomic shocks and market sentiment
Industry cycle impact
Bitcoin halving expectation: After the halving event in April 2024, market funds concentrate on mainstream coins, and small to mid-cap public chain tokens like KAS face liquidity squeeze.
Regulatory dynamics: The U.S. Treasury includes KAS in the 'high-risk assets' list, restricting bank custody, leading to a wave of institutional sell-offs.
Ecological progress and challenges
Technical upgrade delay: The ZK-Rollups privacy solution originally scheduled for Q4 2024 has been postponed to Q2 2025, with a 20% decrease in developer community activity.
Application scenario limitations: Transaction volume of payment area partner TravelbyBit has decreased by 40% year-on-year, and the penetration rate of enterprise-level cross-border settlements is less than 1%.
IV. Key price levels and scenario deductions
Scenario trigger conditions target probability: panic continues to break below $0.050 + Bitcoin breaks below $90,000 to $0.040 35% oscillation builds bottom in the $0.050-0.068 range with low volume consolidation horizontal fluctuation 50% technical breakout above $0.085 + institutional funds enter the $0.120-0.150 range 15%
Technical resonance point:
Weekly level: Price breaks below the descending channel extended from the 2024 high ($0.11), mid-term adjustment or continuation until Q3.
Monthly target: If it falls below $0.050, it may test $0.030 (the low point before the 2023 crash).
V. Operation strategy optimization
Short-term trading (1-3 days)
Short position: Layout on rebound to the $0.065-0.068 range, stop loss at $0.070, target $0.058-0.055.
Long position: Only enter lightly when stabilizing above $0.060 and volume increases by more than 20%, stop loss at $0.055, target $0.068.
Medium to long-term layout (1-3 months)
Regular investment: Gradually build positions in the $0.050-0.060 range, hold until the 2026 bull market cycle (benchmarking Solana valuation).
Hedging portfolio: Long KAS/short MATIC exchange rate hedge (if MATIC explodes due to AI track, the price difference may widen).
Institution-level risk control
Options protection: Buy $0.045 put options (premium about 5%), hedge against zero risk.
Cross-chain arbitrage: Short KAS futures while buying USDC stablecoins to capture US dollar liquidity premium opportunities.
VI. Risk warning and data tracking
Core indicators:
On-chain active addresses: If it falls below 100,000/day (currently 120,000), it may trigger accelerated zeroing.
Project party dynamics: Pay attention to the inflow of DWF Labs' market-making funds (currently averaging $20 million per day).
Policy risk: The SEC may define KAS as a security, triggering a new round of sell-off.
Conclusion: KAS is under dual pressure of technical upgrade delays and ecological application lag, and in the short term, vigilance is needed for panic sell-off continuation down to $0.050, but the oversold structure may trigger a technical rebound. If ZK-Rollups are successfully launched in Q2 2025 and listed on mainstream exchanges, it is expected to break above $0.10. Investors should pay close attention to the recovery of miner hash power on April 15 and the progress of DWF Labs' market-making.
