As of April 3, 2025, the price of BTC/USDT on Binance is $81,775.0, down $5,105.0 (-5.88%) from the previous trading day. The intraday high is $88,398.0, the low is $81,257.0, and the trading volume has significantly increased, indicating heightened market volatility.
1. Technical Analysis
Moving Average System: BTC price has fallen below the 50-day moving average (approximately $85,000) and is close to the 200-day moving average (approximately $80,000). There is a trend for the 50-day moving average to cross below the 200-day moving average, which may form a 'death cross', indicating further downside risk.
MACD Indicator: Both the DIF line and DEA line are below the zero axis, and the DIF line has crossed below the DEA line, forming a dead cross, indicating an increase in bearish momentum.
RSI Indicator: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approximately 30, close to the oversold area, suggesting a potential technical rebound in the short term.
2. Impact of News
Recently, U.S. President Trump announced new trade tariff policies, triggering a rise in market risk aversion, leading to a drop in the prices of risk assets including BTC.
3. Key Support and Resistance Levels
Support Level: $80,000 (200-day moving average position); if this level is broken, it may drop to $75,000 (previous low).
Resistance Level: $85,000 (50-day moving average position); if this level is broken, the next resistance level is at $90,000 (psychological barrier).
4. Suggested Trading Strategies
Short-term Traders: Given that RSI is close to the oversold area, a small long position can be attempted near $80,300, with a target of $85,000 and a stop-loss set below $79,600.
Medium to Long-term Investors: It is recommended to wait and see, waiting for the price to stabilize and re-establish above the 50-day moving average before considering a long position.
5. Risk Warning
The BTC market is highly volatile, influenced by multiple factors such as policies and market sentiment. Investors should strictly control their positions, set stop-losses, and guard against potential risks.
Note: The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should make cautious decisions based on their own risk tolerance.
