$BTC

Bitcoin (BTC) Market Analysis – April 3, 2025

1. Recent Price Action & Market Impact

Bitcoin Decline: BTC fell 5% to $81,479.77 following President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, sparking fears of a global trade war. Ether (-7%) and Solana (-13%) also saw sharp declines.

Macro Sensitivity: BTC continues to trade as a high-beta macro asset, reacting to real yields, dollar strength, and liquidity shifts. Some analysts view the dip as a strategic buying opportunity.

2. Whale Accumulation & Market Sentiment

Whale Buying Resumes: Wallets holding 10,000+ BTC saw their first net inflows since August 2024, reinforcing $80,000 as a key support level. Historically, whales accumulate during downturns.

Mixed Signals: Despite whale confidence, Glassnode’s Accumulation Trend Score (0.15/1) indicates broader investor distribution, maintaining downward pressure on BTC.

3. Institutional & Mining Developments

Mining Expansion: MARA Holdings mined 829 BTC in March 2025 (+17% MoM), bringing its holdings to 47,531 BTC—a sign of long-term institutional conviction.

ETF Influence: Bitcoin ETFs continue to drive institutional demand, with over 1 million BTC locked in ETFs. Major firms, including MicroStrategy, are expanding their positions.

4. Price Forecast & Technical Analysis

Bullish Projections:

Nic Puckrin (Coin Bureau CEO) suggests BTC could follow its 2017 breakout pattern, targeting $150,000 if it surpasses $93,000 resistance.

Analysts at Finance Magnates & Forbes predict BTC reclaiming $100,000 in 2025, fueled by Fed rate cuts, institutional adoption, and Trump’s pro-crypto stance.

Bearish Risks:

Trade war fears, inflation, and regulatory uncertainty could cap upside potential.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index recently rebounded from "Extreme Fear," signaling ongoing market caution.

5. Macroeconomic Factors

Fed Policy: Traders assign a 70% probability of a Fed rate cut by June 2025, which could weaken the dollar and boost BTC as a hedge.