The U.S. tariff policy (such as targeting Chinese goods or specific industries) may indirectly affect the cryptocurrency market through macroeconomic transmission and market sentiment fluctuations. The following is a multidimensional impact analysis:

1. The logic of limited direct impact

  1. The non-physical attributes of virtual currencies

    • Tariffs target physical goods trade, while cryptocurrencies are considered digital assets and are not directly constrained by tariff policies.

    • Mining machines, hardware wallets, and other physical products may be affected by rising supply chain costs, but the impact is limited (by 2025, the demand for mining machines has shifted to renewable energy countries).

  2. Decentralized characteristics

    • The pricing power of mainstream cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin is dispersed across the global market, making it difficult for the tariff policy of a single country to directly impact prices.

2. Indirect Impact Pathways and Potential Effects

1. Macroeconomic transmission of fluctuations

  • Changes in U.S. dollar liquidity:

    • If tariffs trigger a trade war, the Federal Reserve may adjust monetary policy (such as lowering interest rates to counter economic pressure), and liquidity easing could drive funds into the cryptocurrency market as a safe haven.

    • Historical case: During the China-U.S. trade war in 2019, Bitcoin and gold rose simultaneously.

  • Inflation expectations:

    • Tariffs increase the prices of imported goods → U.S. CPI rises → Some investors increase their holdings of Bitcoin to hedge against inflation (similar to the 2021-2022 cycle).

2. Market sentiment and risk appetite

  • Short-term fluctuations:

    • In the early stages of policy announcements, there may be an increase in risk-averse sentiment, leading to simultaneous declines in the cryptocurrency market and U.S. stocks (for example, during the proposal for U.S. steel tariffs in March 2025, BTC briefly corrected by 5%).

    • If conflicts escalate, the demand for stablecoins (such as USDT) may increase (as an alternative when fiat currency channels are restricted).

  • Long-term capital flows:

    • If tariff policies weaken confidence in traditional financial markets, some institutions may increase their allocation of crypto assets from 1%-3% to 5% (as predicted in Morgan Stanley's Q1 2025 report).

3. Industry chain and mining costs

  • Mining machine supply chain:

    • If tariffs cover Chinese-made mining machine chips (such as the latest models from Bitmain), it may lead to an increase in operational costs for U.S. mining farms, but the impact is limited (by 2025, global computing power distribution has diversified).

  • Hardware wallets:

    • If manufacturers like Ledger and Trezor adjust prices due to tariffs, it may suppress retail user demand, but the overall market impact is weak.

3. Differentiated impacts by cryptocurrency type

The potential impact of asset types on Bitcoin (BTC) as 'digital gold' benefits from safe-haven demand, but volatility may be amplified in the short term. The demand for fiat currency inflow and outflow for stablecoins (USDT/USDC) may increase, especially if the cost of cross-border remittances rises. DeFi token on-chain transactions are not affected by tariffs, but if overall market risk appetite decreases, total value locked (TVL) may contract in the short term. AI + crypto projects might be affected if tariffs target Chinese AI chips, and related computing power leasing tokens (such as Render Token) may be impacted by supply chain cost transmission.

4. Historical Comparison and the Uniqueness of 2025

  • 2018-2019 Trade War: The correlation between Bitcoin and gold rose to 0.6, but the market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market was relatively small (around $300 billion). Currently (2025), with a market capitalization exceeding $5 trillion, the linkage effect may weaken.

  • New variables in 2025:

    • The U.S. SEC has approved multiple Bitcoin spot ETFs, increasing the proportion of institutional investors and making the market structure more mature.

    • The global regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies is gradually becoming clear (such as the implementation of MiCA), reducing the marginal effects of policy shocks.

5. Recommendations

  1. Short-term traders:

    • Pay attention to market sentiment fluctuations within 48 hours after the announcement of tariff policies, and consider using options to hedge tail risks.

  2. Long-term holders:

    • No need to overreact, but monitor signals of adjustments in Federal Reserve policy (such as expectations for interest rate cuts).

  3. Miners and project parties:

    • Diversify supply chain risks by prioritizing hardware procurement from non-tariff list countries (such as mining machines produced in Malaysia).

Conclusion: Disruptive factors rather than trend reversals

The impact of U.S. tariffs on the cryptocurrency market is more reflected as short-term sentiment disturbances and local industry chain cost transmissions, making it difficult to change the long-term trends dominated by the Bitcoin halving cycle (to be completed in 2024) and institutionalization processes. Comprehensive judgment should be made in conjunction with subsequent Federal Reserve policies and geopolitical developments.