#冲币新时代 The impact of Trump's tariff policy on the cryptocurrency market is multifaceted, with both short-term shocks and long-term structural changes. The following is a comprehensive analysis:

### 1. **Short-term Market Turbulence and Capital Outflow**

- **Price Fluctuations**: After Trump announced 'reciprocal tariffs' on multiple countries, the price of Bitcoin surged to $87,400 but quickly fell back to $82,000, with a daily drop of 3%. As of April 3, Bitcoin was quoted at $83,600, with the decline narrowing to 1.38%.

- **Massive Capital Outflow**: The cryptocurrency ETF saw a net outflow of $8.6 billion in a single day, with Bitcoin ETF experiencing a net outflow of $8.7 billion, indicating that investors are turning to traditional safe-haven assets like gold.

- **Overall Market Shrinkage**: The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies fell by 1.37% within 24 hours, hitting a low of $2.64 trillion, with Ethereum dropping by as much as 6%.

### 2. **Increased Correlation with US Stocks**

- Recently, Bitcoin's correlation with the Nasdaq index reached 0.74, meaning that if US stocks drop by 10%, Bitcoin may also drop by 7.4%.

- Due to the tariff policy exacerbating market risk aversion, US stocks have entered a bearish cycle, making it difficult for Bitcoin to rise independently in the short term.

### 3. **Long-term Structural Impacts**

- **Undermining the Dollar's Position, Favoring Bitcoin**: Grayscale Research Director Zach Pandl believes that tariffs may weaken the dollar's dominance, increasing market interest in non-dollar assets (like Bitcoin).

- **'Digital Gold' Narrative**: Some analysts believe that Bitcoin may replace gold as a safe-haven choice amid global economic uncertainty, especially if market sentiment recovers and refocuses on fundamentals.

- **Rising Mining Costs**: Tariffs on Chinese electronic equipment may lead to a 17% increase in mining machine prices, extending the investment return cycle for mining farms and accelerating industry concentration.

### 4. **Market Divergence: Short-term Pessimism vs. Long-term Optimism**

- **Pessimistic View**: Current market reactions indicate that investors are worried about trade wars and economic recession, leading to the sell-off of cryptocurrency assets viewed as high-risk.

- **Optimistic View**: If the tariff policy is implemented in phases and the market digests the shocks, the crypto market may rebound, and Bitcoin could potentially reach new all-time highs in the long term.

### 5. **New Opportunities for Stablecoins and On-chain Finance**

- Tariff policies may drive dollar stablecoins (like USDT, USDC) to become new tools for cross-border payments, especially in countries with strict capital controls.

- The stablecoin market may form a 'shadow dollar system' independent of traditional banks, weakening the Federal Reserve's direct control over liquidity.

### Summary

Trump's tariff policy has caused significant fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market in the short term, with funds flowing towards traditional safe-haven assets. However, in the long term, if the policy undermines the dollar's hegemony and exacerbates global economic fragmentation, Bitcoin may benefit from its 'digital gold' properties and its positioning as a non-sovereign currency. Additionally, rising supply chain costs and the rise of stablecoins will reshape the competitive landscape of the crypto industry.$BTC