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Markets are bracing for a U.S. recession (50% chance happening)
The
bond
market is pricing in 4 cuts this year to rescue the economy.
Pressure on Fed
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**BESSENT: NO UNILATERAL OFFER FROM TRUMP TO CUT CHINA TARIFFS **BESSENT: DECLINES TO COMMENT ON WSJ STORY ON LOWERING TARIFFS ON CHINA, BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THEY WENT DOWN IN A MUTUAL WAY **BESSENT: FULL CHINA TRADE DEAL MAY TAKE 2-TO-3 YEARS
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SPX +2.5% DXY +1.3% BTC +6.8% Gold -1.3% IMO only thing has changed today in market is the tone of Trump.
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The U.S. Dollar Index has fallen below 99, currently sitting at 98.6 — its lowest level since March 2022, when the Federal Reserve implemented its first interest rate hike since 2018. A 9% drop year-to-date, meaning, any asset with less than a 10% gain is actually losing value in terms of U.S. dollar purchasing power. But we can zoom out.
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CHINA FINANCE MINISTRY: TO IMPOSE ADDITIONAL 50% TARIFFS, TO 84% ON U.S. GOODS, CCTV
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1-YEAR RETURN AFTER 4 MAJOR NASDAQ DIPS 2009/3 - 2010/3 Nasdaq +85% Gold +21% 2018/12 - 2019/12 Nasdaq +47% Gold +21% Bitcoin +92% 2020/03 - 2021/03 Nasdaq +85% Gold +6% Bitcoin +849% 2022/10 - 2023/10 Nasdaq +32% Gold +21% Bitcoin +56%
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